Football · Chile Primera B · 14/09, 23:00

Prediction: Club Deportes Santa Cruz vs Deportes Recoleta

Team pages: Club Deportes Santa Cruz · Deportes Recoleta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.32Total

Club Deportes Santa Cruz1.29

Deportes Recoleta1.03

1X2

42% 29% 29%

Club Deportes Santa Cruz Draw Deportes Recoleta

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Club Deportes Santa Cruz 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWLLDDW

Deportes Recoleta 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DLLDWDWDWW

Head-to-head

Club Deportes Santa Cruz 0–2–4 Deportes Recoleta (6 last)

Deportes Recoleta1-0Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Club Deportes Santa Cruz0-0Deportes Recoleta
Deportes Recoleta3-2Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Deportes Recoleta1-0Club Deportes Santa Cruz
Club Deportes Santa Cruz1-2Deportes Recoleta
Club Deportes Santa Cruz1-1Deportes Recoleta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Club Deportes Santa Cruz 1477 · Deportes Recoleta 1519

	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	Draw	Deportes Recoleta
Our model	41%	31%	28%
Market	43%	27%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Deportes Recoleta (rating 1477 vs 1519).
H2H favours Deportes Recoleta: 4-2-0.
High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	Deportes Recoleta
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 1.2	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.2	2.9 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.7	3.8 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.30

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.82

Under 2.51.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:29

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Pinn 2.19
X	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
2	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.14 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 9.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:12 +18’	2.10	3.30	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:02 +5’	2.19	3.15	3.14

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Club Deportes Santa Cruz 0–2–4 Deportes Recoleta

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/05/26 Chile Primera B	Deportes Recoleta	1-0 HT 1-0	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
19/07/25 Chile Primera B	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	0-0 HT 0-0	Deportes Recoleta
28/02/25 Chile Primera B	Deportes Recoleta	3-2 HT 2-2	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
31/07/24 Chile Primera B	Deportes Recoleta	1-0 HT 0-0	Club Deportes Santa Cruz
17/03/24 Chile Primera B	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	1-2 HT 0-1	Deportes Recoleta
03/09/23 Chile Primera B	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	1-1 HT 0-1	Deportes Recoleta

Standings · Chile Primera B

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Santiago Wanderers	24	12	8	4	40	25	44
2	Cobreloa	24	11	9	4	42	27	42
3	Magallanes	25	11	7	7	41	38	40
4	CD Antofagasta	24	10	8	6	41	24	38
5	San Luis Quillota	23	10	8	5	36	28	38
6	Deportes Recoleta	24	10	7	7	36	33	37
7	San Marcos De Arica	25	9	9	7	31	23	36
8	Union Espanola	24	10	5	9	31	31	35
9	Puerto Montt	25	10	4	11	26	31	34
10	Deportes Temuco	24	8	7	9	39	34	31
11	Deportes Copiapo	24	8	7	9	33	38	31
12	Deportes Iquique	24	5	10	9	31	29	25
13	Curico Unido	25	6	9	10	22	38	24
14	Union San Felipe	23	5	7	11	15	37	22
15	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	24	4	9	11	26	38	21
16	Rangers de Talca	24	4	6	14	22	38	18

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Club Deportes Santa Cruz	Deportes Recoleta
Deportes Iquique	1-0 W	1-1 D
Union Espanola	1-1 D	1-2 L
Union San Felipe	0-0 D	0-0 D
Curico Unido	2-1 W	0-0 D
Puerto Montt	0-0 D	0-1 L
Rangers de Talca	1-0 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	3 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Club Deportes Santa Cruz (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Club Deportes Santa Cruz

WLLDWLLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	6	11	W
05/09	Union Espanola Chile Primera B	0-1	1-1	3	8	D
29/08	Union San Felipe Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
22/08	Magallanes Chile Primera B	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
18/08	San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B	0-2	0-2	7	4	L
14/08	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	1-0	2-1	7	6	W
08/08	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
02/08	Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B	0-1	1-3	6	6	L
25/07	Cobreloa Chile Primera B	1-2	2-4	11	4	L
07/06	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	0-0	1-0	8	5	W

Deportes Recoleta

DLLDWDWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
09/09	San Marcos De Arica Chile Primera B	0-1	2-1	7	0	W
06/09	CD Antofagasta Chile Primera B	1-0	2-1	2	4	W
30/08	Curico Unido Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
22/08	Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
18/08	Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
13/08	Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B	1-1	4-2	8	6	W
08/08	Union San Felipe Chile Primera B	0-0	0-0	6	7	D
02/08	Puerto Montt Chile Primera B	0-1	0-1	10	5	L
28/07	Union Espanola Chile Primera B	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
07/06	Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B	0-1	1-1	5	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Club Deportes Santa Cruz vs Deportes Recoleta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Club Deportes Santa Cruz win (42%). Probabilities: Club Deportes Santa Cruz 42%, draw 29%, Deportes Recoleta 29%.

How many goals are expected in Club Deportes Santa Cruz vs Deportes Recoleta?

The model expects 2.32 goals (Club Deportes Santa Cruz 1.29 · Deportes Recoleta 1.03), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Club Deportes Santa Cruz vs Deportes Recoleta?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.