Football · Chile Primera B · 13/09, 20:00
Prediction: San Marcos De Arica vs Curico Unido
Team pages: San Marcos De Arica · Curico Unido
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.32Total
San Marcos De Arica1.51
Curico Unido0.81
1X2
San Marcos De Arica
Draw
Curico Unido
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-0 14%
Recent form · 10 last
San Marcos De Arica
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Curico Unido
3-3-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Marcos De Arica
0–1–5
Curico Unido
(6 last)
- Curico Unido2-2San Marcos De Arica
- Curico Unido5-3San Marcos De Arica
- San Marcos De Arica1-2Curico Unido
- San Marcos De Arica2-3Curico Unido
- Curico Unido1-0San Marcos De Arica
- San Marcos De Arica1-4Curico Unido
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Marcos De Arica 1436 · Curico Unido 1495
| San Marcos De Arica | Draw | Curico Unido | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 28% | 19% |
| Market | 54% | 26% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Curico Unido (rating 1436 vs 1495).
- H2H favours Curico Unido: 5-1-0.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Marcos De Arica | Curico Unido | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.3 | 0.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.5 | 0.3 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 20/50/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.2 / 4.5 | 2.6 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.8 | 4.6 / 0.9 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Marcos De Arica 0–1–5 Curico Unido
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/26 Chile Primera B | Curico Unido | 2-2 HT 1-0 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 12/07/25 Chile Primera B | Curico Unido | 5-3 HT 1-2 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 25/02/25 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Curico Unido |
| 01/08/24 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 2-3 HT 0-1 | Curico Unido |
| 17/03/24 Chile Primera B | Curico Unido | 1-0 HT 0-0 | San Marcos De Arica |
| 19/02/17 Chile Primera B | San Marcos De Arica | 1-4 HT 0-3 | Curico Unido |
Standings · Chile Primera B
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Wanderers | 24 | 12 | 8 | 4 | 40 | 25 | 44 |
| 2 | Cobreloa | 24 | 11 | 9 | 4 | 42 | 27 | 42 |
| 3 | Magallanes | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 38 | 40 |
| 4 | CD Antofagasta | 24 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 41 | 24 | 38 |
| 5 | San Luis Quillota | 23 | 10 | 8 | 5 | 36 | 28 | 38 |
| 6 | Deportes Recoleta | 24 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 36 | 33 | 37 |
| 7 | San Marcos De Arica | 25 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 31 | 23 | 36 |
| 8 | Union Espanola | 24 | 10 | 5 | 9 | 31 | 31 | 35 |
| 9 | Puerto Montt | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 26 | 31 | 34 |
| 10 | Deportes Temuco | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 39 | 34 | 31 |
| 11 | Deportes Copiapo | 24 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 33 | 38 | 31 |
| 12 | Deportes Iquique | 24 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 31 | 29 | 25 |
| 13 | Curico Unido | 25 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 22 | 38 | 24 |
| 14 | Union San Felipe | 23 | 5 | 7 | 11 | 15 | 37 | 22 |
| 15 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz | 24 | 4 | 9 | 11 | 26 | 38 | 21 |
| 16 | Rangers de Talca | 24 | 4 | 6 | 14 | 22 | 38 | 18 |
Common opponents 7 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | San Marcos De Arica | Curico Unido |
|---|---|---|
| Deportes Recoleta | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Deportes Copiapo | 2-1 W | 0-4 L |
| Cobreloa | 0-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Rangers de Talca | 1-2 L | 0-0 D |
| Union Espanola | 1-2 L | 2-1 W |
| Union San Felipe | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| San Luis Quillota | 0-1 L | 1-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 6 L | 2 W 3 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Curico Unido (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Marcos De Arica
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 06/09 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 2-1 | 5 | 9 | W |
| 01/09 | Cobreloa Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 22/08 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
1-2 | 1-2 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 13/08 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-1 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Santiago Wanderers Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 01/08 | Deportes Iquique Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 26/07 | Magallanes Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 12 | W |
| 06/06 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 7 | L |
Curico Unido
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09 | Union Espanola Chile Primera B |
1-1 | 2-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 05/09 | Puerto Montt Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 30/08 | Deportes Recoleta Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 24/08 | Union San Felipe Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 18/08 | Deportes Copiapo Chile Primera B |
0-2 | 0-4 | 8 | 7 | L |
| 14/08 | Club Deportes Santa Cruz Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 09/08 | Rangers de Talca Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 7 | D |
| 01/08 | Cobreloa Chile Primera B |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 25/07 | San Luis Quillota Chile Primera B |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 09/06 | Deportes Temuco Chile Primera B |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Marcos De Arica vs Curico Unido?
According to our model, the most likely result is a San Marcos De Arica win (53%). Probabilities: San Marcos De Arica 53%, draw 27%, Curico Unido 19%.
How many goals are expected in San Marcos De Arica vs Curico Unido?
The model expects 2.32 goals (San Marcos De Arica 1.51 · Curico Unido 0.81), with a 50% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in San Marcos De Arica vs Curico Unido?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-0.