Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 29/07, 21:00

Prediction: Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo Trinidense

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.6Total

Sportivo Luqueno1.27

Sportivo Trinidense1.33

1X2

34% 29% 37%

Sportivo Luqueno Draw Sportivo Trinidense

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Luqueno 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Sportivo Trinidense 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sportivo Luqueno 3–1–2 Sportivo Trinidense (6 last)

Sportivo Luqueno2-1Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense1-1Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno1-0Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense2-0Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno1-0Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense1-0Sportivo Luqueno

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Luqueno 1466 · Sportivo Trinidense 1538

	Sportivo Luqueno	Draw	Sportivo Trinidense
Our model	34%	29%	37%
Market	34%	29%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.6 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo Trinidense (rating 1466 vs 1538).
H2H favours Sportivo Luqueno: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Luqueno	Sportivo Trinidense
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.9	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.1	1.6 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.4	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.63

X3.10

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)2.00

2 (0)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 23:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 2.63	Pinn 3.25 ★
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.45 → 2.45	Pinn 2.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
23:08 +1’	2.63	3.10	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:08	3.21	2.66	2.58
02:07	3.25▲	2.68▲	2.60▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Luqueno 3–1–2 Sportivo Trinidense

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	2-1 HT 1-1	Sportivo Trinidense
26/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Trinidense	1-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Luqueno
17/10/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	1-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Trinidense
02/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Trinidense	2-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Luqueno
15/04/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	1-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Trinidense
01/02/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Trinidense	1-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Luqueno

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo Luqueno	Sportivo Trinidense
Olimpia Asuncion	1-2 L	2-1 W
Sportivo San Lorenzo	0-0 D	2-1 W
Libertad Asuncion	2-3 L	1-1 D
Rubio Nu	0-0 D	4-0 W
Sportivo Ameliano	2-2 D	2-1 W
Cerro Porteno	2-3 L	2-1 W
Nacional Asuncion	2-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Trinidense (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo Luqueno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
17/05	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
11/05	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
03/05	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
25/04	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
18/04	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	9	10	L
11/04	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	2	8	W
05/04	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-2	4	6	D
01/04	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	2-3	2-3	2	7	L
27/03	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	2-3	4	3	L

Sportivo Trinidense

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/07	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
24/05	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
15/05	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-1	1	1	W
10/05	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	0	4	L
01/05	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	10	6	L
25/04	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
17/04	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
13/04	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
07/04	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	3-0	4-0	7	3	W
02/04	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	3	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo Trinidense?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sportivo Trinidense win (37%). Probabilities: Sportivo Luqueno 34%, draw 29%, Sportivo Trinidense 37%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo Trinidense?

The model expects 2.6 goals (Sportivo Luqueno 1.27 · Sportivo Trinidense 1.33), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo Trinidense?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.