Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 03/08, 23:30

Prediction: Deportivo Recoleta vs Nacional Asuncion

Team pages: Deportivo Recoleta · Nacional Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.37Total

Deportivo Recoleta0.96

Nacional Asuncion1.41

1X2

24% 29% 47%

Deportivo Recoleta Draw Nacional Asuncion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Deportivo Recoleta 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWDLLDWWDL

Nacional Asuncion 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LDDWWWDWDW

Head-to-head

Deportivo Recoleta 0–4–2 Nacional Asuncion (6 last)

Nacional Asuncion2-1Deportivo Recoleta
Nacional Asuncion1-1Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta2-2Nacional Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta0-0Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion1-0Deportivo Recoleta
Nacional Asuncion1-1Deportivo Recoleta

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Deportivo Recoleta 1491 · Nacional Asuncion 1555

	Deportivo Recoleta	Draw	Nacional Asuncion
Our model	24%	29%	46%
Market	25%	29%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional Asuncion (rating 1491 vs 1555).
H2H favours Nacional Asuncion: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Deportivo Recoleta	Nacional Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.6	1.2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	0.5 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	2.7 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.10

21.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.95

Under 2.251.85

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:22

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Pinn 3.72
X	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.39 ★
2	1.90 → 1.90	Pinn 1.98

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.7% Pinnacle margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
18:19 +3’	3.60	3.10	1.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:12 +1’	3.67	3.35	1.97
01:05	3.72▲	3.39▲	1.98▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Deportivo Recoleta 0–4–2 Nacional Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	2-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Recoleta
05/03/26 Copa Sudamericana	Nacional Asuncion	1-1 HT 0-1	Deportivo Recoleta
27/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	2-2 HT 2-1	Nacional Asuncion
28/11/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	0-0 HT 0-0	Nacional Asuncion
06/09/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	1-0 HT 0-0	Deportivo Recoleta
22/04/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	1-1 HT 0-0	Deportivo Recoleta

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Deportivo Recoleta	Nacional Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion	1-4 L	2-1 W
Guarani Asuncion	2-1 W	1-0 W
Olimpia Asuncion	2-3 L	2-0 W
Sportivo Ameliano	2-3 L	1-1 D
Cerro Porteno	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Nacional Asuncion (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Deportivo Recoleta

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-4	8	4	L
25/07	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	13	7	D
27/05	San Lorenzo Copa Sudamericana	1-0	1-0	4	7	W
23/05	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	2-1	1	5	W
20/05	Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana	2-1	2-2	2	4	D
15/05	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-3	4	2	L
11/05	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
06/05	Santos Copa Sudamericana	0-1	1-1	6	5	D
03/05	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
29/04	Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana	0-0	0-0	5	4	D

Nacional Asuncion

LDDWWWDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
25/07	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
24/05	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
15/05	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	10	6	D
10/05	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
04/05	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
24/04	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	14	7	W
21/04	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
12/04	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	7	D
04/04	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-3	5	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Deportivo Recoleta vs Nacional Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nacional Asuncion win (47%). Probabilities: Deportivo Recoleta 24%, draw 29%, Nacional Asuncion 47%.

How many goals are expected in Deportivo Recoleta vs Nacional Asuncion?

The model expects 2.37 goals (Deportivo Recoleta 0.96 · Nacional Asuncion 1.41), with a 51% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Deportivo Recoleta vs Nacional Asuncion?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.