Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 02/08, 23:30

Prediction: Guarani Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion

Team pages: Guarani Asuncion · Libertad Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Guarani Asuncion1.18

Libertad Asuncion1.43

1X2

30% 29% 42%

Guarani Asuncion Draw Libertad Asuncion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Guarani Asuncion 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLDWLLW

Libertad Asuncion 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWDLLLWW

Head-to-head

Guarani Asuncion 3–2–1 Libertad Asuncion (6 last)

Guarani Asuncion1-0Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion3-3Guarani Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion1-2Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion2-2Guarani Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion0-4Guarani Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion1-3Guarani Asuncion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guarani Asuncion 1498 · Libertad Asuncion 1483

	Guarani Asuncion	Draw	Libertad Asuncion
Our model	30%	29%	42%
Market	30%	29%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Guarani Asuncion: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guarani Asuncion	Libertad Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 0.9	1.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.2	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/50/10%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.9	1.9 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.3	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.10

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.90

Under 2.251.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 14:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.63 → 3.00▲	Pinn 3.07
X	3.00 → 3.10▲	Pinn 3.30
2	2.40 → 2.15▼	Pinn 2.29 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 12.1% Pinnacle margin 6.5%

Time*	1	X	2
07:28 +7’	2.63	3.00	2.40
14:32 +6’	3.00▲	3.10▲	2.15▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:10	2.76	3.23	2.48
01:00	2.78▲	3.26▲	2.50▲
13:21 +1’	3.05▲	3.36▲	2.27▼
18:12	3.05	3.35▼	2.27
09:28	3.07▲	3.30▼	2.29▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guarani Asuncion 3–2–1 Libertad Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	1-0 HT 1-0	Libertad Asuncion
08/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	3-3 HT 1-3	Guarani Asuncion
09/11/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	1-2 HT 1-0	Libertad Asuncion
02/10/25 Paraguay Cup	Libertad Asuncion	2-2 HT 1-2	Guarani Asuncion
25/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	0-4 HT 0-2	Guarani Asuncion
19/04/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	1-3 HT 1-0	Guarani Asuncion

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guarani Asuncion	Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-0 W	5-0 W
Sportivo Luqueno	1-2 L	3-2 W
Deportivo Recoleta	1-2 L	4-1 W
Nacional Asuncion	0-1 L	1-2 L
2 de Mayo	2-2 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Libertad Asuncion (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Guarani Asuncion

WLWDLDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
26/07	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
23/05	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
16/05	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
12/05	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/05	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
26/04	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-2	1	7	D
18/04	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	5	10	W
11/04	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
06/04	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	0	6	W

Libertad Asuncion

LWLWDLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	4-1	6	4	W
26/07	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
28/05	UCV Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-1	6	3	L
24/05	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
20/05	Independiente del Valle Copa Libertadores	1-2	1-4	4	1	L
14/05	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
11/05	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
06/05	Rosario Central Copa Libertadores	0-0	0-1	6	6	L
02/05	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	5-0	2	0	W
29/04	Independiente del Valle Copa Libertadores	1-1	2-3	0	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guarani Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Libertad Asuncion win (42%). Probabilities: Guarani Asuncion 30%, draw 29%, Libertad Asuncion 42%.

How many goals are expected in Guarani Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Guarani Asuncion 1.18 · Libertad Asuncion 1.43), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Guarani Asuncion vs Libertad Asuncion?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.