Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 03/08, 21:00

Prediction: Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo San Lorenzo

Team pages: Sportivo Trinidense · Sportivo San Lorenzo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Sportivo Trinidense1.86

Sportivo San Lorenzo0.85

1X2

60% 25% 15%

Sportivo Trinidense Draw Sportivo San Lorenzo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Trinidense 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLLWWWW

Sportivo San Lorenzo 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWDWDL

Head-to-head

Sportivo Trinidense 2–1–3 Sportivo San Lorenzo (6 last)

Sportivo Trinidense2-1Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo San Lorenzo1-1Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense2-0Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo San Lorenzo3-0Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo San Lorenzo5-1Sportivo Trinidense
Sportivo Trinidense0-3Sportivo San Lorenzo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Trinidense 1550 · Sportivo San Lorenzo 1473

	Sportivo Trinidense	Draw	Sportivo San Lorenzo
Our model	60%	24%	16%
Market	60%	26%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Sportivo Trinidense (rating 1550 vs 1473).
H2H favours Sportivo San Lorenzo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Trinidense	Sportivo San Lorenzo
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.2	0.7 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 4.3	1.6 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.50

X3.50

26.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:21

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Pinn 1.53
X	3.50 → 3.50	Pinn 3.85 ★
2	6.00 → 6.00	Pinn 6.26

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9% Pinnacle margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:18 +3’	1.50	3.50	6.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
21:26	1.51	3.82	6.13
22:36	1.52▲	3.87▲	6.27▲
18:20 +1’	1.53▲	3.85▼	6.26▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Trinidense 2–1–3 Sportivo San Lorenzo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/04/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Trinidense	2-1 HT 1-1	Sportivo San Lorenzo
19/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Trinidense
08/10/22 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Sportivo Trinidense	2-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo San Lorenzo
05/07/22 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Sportivo San Lorenzo	3-0 HT 1-0	Sportivo Trinidense
18/10/21 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Sportivo San Lorenzo	5-1 HT 3-0	Sportivo Trinidense
03/07/21 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Sportivo Trinidense	0-3 HT 0-1	Sportivo San Lorenzo

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo Trinidense	Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo Luqueno	4-1 W	0-0 D
2 de Mayo	1-2 L	1-0 W
Libertad Asuncion	1-1 D	0-5 L
Rubio Nu	4-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Trinidense (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo Trinidense

WDWLLLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	4-1	4	5	W
24/07	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	6	3	W
24/05	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	3	5	W
15/05	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-1	1	1	W
10/05	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	0	4	L
01/05	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	10	6	L
25/04	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	3	6	L
17/04	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	4	5	W
13/04	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
07/04	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	3-0	4-0	7	3	W

Sportivo San Lorenzo

LWLLLWDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/07	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	1	0	L
25/07	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
22/05	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
17/05	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/05	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
02/05	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-5	5	0	L
27/04	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
17/04	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
11/04	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
05/04	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	2-4	6	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportivo Trinidense win (60%). Probabilities: Sportivo Trinidense 60%, draw 25%, Sportivo San Lorenzo 15%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Sportivo Trinidense 1.86 · Sportivo San Lorenzo 0.85), with a 55% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Trinidense vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.