Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 30/07, 23:30
Prediction: Libertad Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Libertad Asuncion1.77
Deportivo Recoleta1.04
1X2
Libertad Asuncion
Draw
Deportivo Recoleta
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Libertad Asuncion
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Deportivo Recoleta
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Libertad Asuncion
2–3–1
Deportivo Recoleta
(6 last)
- Libertad Asuncion1-0Deportivo Recoleta
- Deportivo Recoleta2-1Libertad Asuncion
- Deportivo Recoleta2-2Libertad Asuncion
- Libertad Asuncion1-1Deportivo Recoleta
- Deportivo Recoleta1-1Libertad Asuncion
- Libertad Asuncion5-2Deportivo Recoleta
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Libertad Asuncion 1479 · Deportivo Recoleta 1516
| Libertad Asuncion | Draw | Deportivo Recoleta | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 53% | 26% | 21% |
| Market | 53% | 26% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Libertad Asuncion: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Libertad Asuncion | Deportivo Recoleta | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.5 | 1.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/60/20% | 40/20/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 4.2 | 2.8 / 4.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.1 | 4.7 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Libertad Asuncion 2–3–1 Deportivo Recoleta
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Libertad Asuncion | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Recoleta |
| 02/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Deportivo Recoleta | 2-1 HT 0-0 | Libertad Asuncion |
| 27/10/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Deportivo Recoleta | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Libertad Asuncion |
| 10/08/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Libertad Asuncion | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Deportivo Recoleta |
| 14/04/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Deportivo Recoleta | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Libertad Asuncion |
| 03/02/25 Paraguay Division Profesional | Libertad Asuncion | 5-2 HT 0-2 | Deportivo Recoleta |
Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Recoleta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guarani Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 2 de Mayo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nacional Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rubio Nu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Ameliano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Luqueno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Trinidense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Libertad Asuncion | Deportivo Recoleta |
|---|---|---|
| Olimpia Asuncion | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Nacional Asuncion | 1-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Sportivo San Lorenzo | 5-0 W | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 1 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Libertad Asuncion (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Libertad Asuncion
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 28/05 | UCV Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 24/05 | Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 5 | L |
| 20/05 | Independiente del Valle Copa Libertadores |
1-2 | 1-4 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 14/05 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 11/05 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 3-2 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 06/05 | Rosario Central Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-0 | 5-0 | 2 | 0 | W |
| 29/04 | Independiente del Valle Copa Libertadores |
1-1 | 2-3 | 0 | 5 | L |
| 26/04 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-0 | 3-2 | 4 | 11 | W |
Deportivo Recoleta
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07 | Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 1-1 | 13 | 7 | D |
| 27/05 | San Lorenzo Copa Sudamericana |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 23/05 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-1 | 2-1 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 20/05 | Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana |
2-1 | 2-2 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 15/05 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 11/05 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-2 | 2-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 06/05 | Santos Copa Sudamericana |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 29/04 | Deportivo Cuenca Copa Sudamericana |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 24/04 | Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Libertad Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Libertad Asuncion win (53%). Probabilities: Libertad Asuncion 53%, draw 26%, Deportivo Recoleta 21%.
How many goals are expected in Libertad Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Libertad Asuncion 1.77 · Deportivo Recoleta 1.04), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Libertad Asuncion vs Deportivo Recoleta?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.