Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 09/08, 23:30

Prediction: Nacional Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion

Team pages: Nacional Asuncion · Guarani Asuncion

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.2Total

Nacional Asuncion1.25

Guarani Asuncion0.95

1X2

42% 30% 28%

Nacional Asuncion Draw Guarani Asuncion

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional Asuncion 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWDWDWL

Guarani Asuncion 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLDWLLWW

Head-to-head

Nacional Asuncion 3–1–2 Guarani Asuncion (6 last)

Guarani Asuncion0-1Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion1-1Guarani Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion0-4Nacional Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion2-0Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion1-0Guarani Asuncion
Guarani Asuncion2-1Nacional Asuncion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacional Asuncion 1550 · Guarani Asuncion 1496

	Nacional Asuncion	Draw	Guarani Asuncion
Our model	42%	31%	27%
Market	43%	29%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.2 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional Asuncion (rating 1550 vs 1496).
H2H favours Nacional Asuncion: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional Asuncion	Guarani Asuncion
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.4	2.5 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.6	4.2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.10

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.252.02

Under 2.251.77

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.15

Market movement

Match winner · 4 moves · last 07:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 2.10▲	Pinn 2.19
X	3.20 → 3.10▼	Bet365 3.10
2	3.60 → 3.20▼	Pinn 3.61 ★

See the full journey (4)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:13 +28’	1.91	3.20	3.60
06:35 +2’	2.10▲	3.10▼	3.20▼
07:19 +1’	1.91▼	3.20▲	3.60▲
07:56 +3’	2.10▲	3.10▼	3.20▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:41	2.22	3.04	3.48
09:37	2.20▼	3.06▲	3.52▲
23:34 +2’	2.19▼	3.10▲	3.61▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional Asuncion 3–1–2 Guarani Asuncion

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	0-1 HT 0-0	Nacional Asuncion
01/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	1-1 HT 0-0	Guarani Asuncion
14/11/25 Paraguay Cup	Guarani Asuncion	0-4 HT 0-2	Nacional Asuncion
21/09/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	2-0 HT 0-0	Nacional Asuncion
12/07/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	1-0 HT 0-0	Guarani Asuncion
27/04/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Guarani Asuncion	2-1 HT 1-0	Nacional Asuncion

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacional Asuncion	Guarani Asuncion
Deportivo Recoleta	2-3 L	1-2 L
Sportivo Ameliano	1-1 D	1-0 W
Libertad Asuncion	2-1 W	2-1 W
Cerro Porteno	0-0 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Guarani Asuncion (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacional Asuncion

DDWWWDWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
29/07	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
25/07	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
24/05	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
15/05	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	10	6	D
10/05	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
04/05	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
24/04	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	14	7	W
21/04	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	2	7	D
12/04	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	7	D

Guarani Asuncion

LWDLDWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
30/07	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	6	0	W
26/07	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
23/05	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
16/05	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	7	6	W
12/05	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	3	D
04/05	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
26/04	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-2	1	7	D
18/04	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-1	5	10	W
11/04	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional Asuncion win (42%). Probabilities: Nacional Asuncion 42%, draw 30%, Guarani Asuncion 28%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion?

The model expects 2.2 goals (Nacional Asuncion 1.25 · Guarani Asuncion 0.95), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional Asuncion vs Guarani Asuncion?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.