Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 09/08, 21:00

Prediction: Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Luqueno

Team pages: Sportivo San Lorenzo · Sportivo Luqueno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.17Total

Sportivo San Lorenzo0.96

Sportivo Luqueno1.21

1X2

28% 30% 41%

Sportivo San Lorenzo Draw Sportivo Luqueno

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 50%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo San Lorenzo 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Sportivo Luqueno 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sportivo San Lorenzo 2–3–1 Sportivo Luqueno (6 last)

Sportivo San Lorenzo0-0Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno1-1Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo San Lorenzo2-0Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno1-2Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo San Lorenzo1-2Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno0-0Sportivo San Lorenzo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo San Lorenzo 1472 · Sportivo Luqueno 1465

	Sportivo San Lorenzo	Draw	Sportivo Luqueno
Our model	28%	32%	41%
Market	29%	29%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 2.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Sportivo San Lorenzo: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo San Lorenzo	Sportivo Luqueno
Goals for / against (FT)	0.5 / 1.3	1.1 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	10/70/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.2	2.2 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.2	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.10

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.80

2 (-0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.98

Under 2.251.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Pinn 3.14
X	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.36 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11% Pinnacle margin 6.6%

Time*	1	X	2
04:13 +25’	3.10	3.10	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:38	3.14	3.09	2.36

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo San Lorenzo 2–3–1 Sportivo Luqueno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Luqueno
13/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	1-1 HT 1-1	Sportivo San Lorenzo
02/10/22 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Sportivo San Lorenzo	2-0 HT 2-0	Sportivo Luqueno
25/06/22 Paraguay Division Intermedia	Sportivo Luqueno	1-2 HT 0-0	Sportivo San Lorenzo
12/11/20 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-2 HT 0-1	Sportivo Luqueno
31/08/20 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	0-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo San Lorenzo

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo San Lorenzo	Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Trinidense	0-3 L	1-4 L
Guarani Asuncion	0-1 L	2-1 W
Deportivo Recoleta	1-1 D	2-1 W
Olimpia Asuncion	1-0 W	1-2 L
Libertad Asuncion	0-5 L	2-3 L
Rubio Nu	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Luqueno (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo San Lorenzo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/08	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
30/07	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	1	0	L
25/07	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
22/05	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
17/05	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/05	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
02/05	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-5	5	0	L
27/04	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	3	4	L
17/04	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
11/04	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	2	4	W

Sportivo Luqueno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
29/07	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-4	2	5	L
26/07	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
23/05	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
17/05	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
11/05	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
03/05	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
25/04	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
18/04	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-2	9	10	L
11/04	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	2	8	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Luqueno?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Sportivo Luqueno win (41%). Probabilities: Sportivo San Lorenzo 28%, draw 30%, Sportivo Luqueno 41%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Luqueno?

The model expects 2.17 goals (Sportivo San Lorenzo 0.96 · Sportivo Luqueno 1.21), with a 54% chance of under 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo San Lorenzo vs Sportivo Luqueno?

The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.