Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 16/08, 15:00
Prediction: Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo San Lorenzo
Team pages: Cerro Porteno · Sportivo San Lorenzo
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.54Total
Cerro Porteno1.98
Sportivo San Lorenzo0.56
1X2
Cerro Porteno
Draw
Sportivo San Lorenzo
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 51%
Not both to score 53%
Most likely score
2-0
Recent form · 10 last
Cerro Porteno
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Sportivo San Lorenzo
2-3-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cerro Porteno
4–2–0
Sportivo San Lorenzo
(6 last)
- Cerro Porteno2-0Sportivo San Lorenzo
- Sportivo San Lorenzo2-4Cerro Porteno
- Cerro Porteno1-1Sportivo San Lorenzo
- Sportivo San Lorenzo1-1Cerro Porteno
- Cerro Porteno4-1Sportivo San Lorenzo
- Cerro Porteno2-0Sportivo San Lorenzo
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cerro Porteno 1514 · Sportivo San Lorenzo 1429
| Cerro Porteno | Draw | Sportivo San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 70% | 21% | 9% |
| Market | 70% | 21% | 9% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cerro Porteno (rating 1514 vs 1429).
- H2H favours Cerro Porteno: 4-2-0.
- Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cerro Porteno | Sportivo San Lorenzo | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 0.9 | 0.4 / 1.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.2 | 0.2 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/50/20% | 20/40/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.8 | 1.5 / 3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.9 / 0.1 | 2.7 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cerro Porteno 4–2–0 Sportivo San Lorenzo
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Cerro Porteno | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
| 28/01/26 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 2-4 HT 0-2 | Cerro Porteno |
| 14/12/20 Paraguay Division Profesional | Cerro Porteno | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
| 03/10/20 Paraguay Division Profesional | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Cerro Porteno |
| 02/08/20 Paraguay Division Profesional | Cerro Porteno | 4-1 HT 2-0 | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
| 20/10/19 Paraguay Division Profesional | Cerro Porteno | 2-0 HT 0-0 | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Recoleta | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cerro Porteno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guarani Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Olimpia Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | 2 de Mayo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Libertad Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Nacional Asuncion | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Rubio Nu | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo San Lorenzo | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Ameliano | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Luqueno | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Sportivo Trinidense | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Cerro Porteno | Sportivo San Lorenzo |
|---|---|---|
| Sportivo Luqueno | 3-0 W | 0-2 L |
| 2 de Mayo | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Sportivo Trinidense | 1-2 L | 0-3 L |
| Rubio Nu | 2-0 W | 0-1 L |
| Guarani Asuncion | 0-0 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Cerro Porteno (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cerro Porteno
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/08 | Palmeiras Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 6 | D |
| 08/08 | Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 9 | 4 | L |
| 01/08 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 28/07 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/07 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 3 | L |
| 29/05 | Sporting Cristal Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 24/05 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 2-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Palmeiras Copa Libertadores |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 15/05 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 1-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 12/05 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 3 | D |
Sportivo San Lorenzo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | 29 de Septiembre FBC Paraguay Cup |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 4 | D |
| 09/08 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 03/08 | Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-1 | 0-3 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 30/07 | Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 7 | D |
| 22/05 | 2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 17/05 | Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-0 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 10/05 | Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 02/05 | Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 27/04 | Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cerro Porteno win (70%). Probabilities: Cerro Porteno 70%, draw 21%, Sportivo San Lorenzo 9%.
How many goals are expected in Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
The model expects 2.54 goals (Cerro Porteno 1.98 · Sportivo San Lorenzo 0.56), with a 51% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Cerro Porteno vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?
The model gives a 53% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.