Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 24/08, 21:00

Prediction: Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno

Team pages: Nacional Asuncion · Sportivo Luqueno

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.65Total

Nacional Asuncion1.7

Sportivo Luqueno0.95

1X2

54% 26% 20%

Nacional Asuncion Draw Sportivo Luqueno

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Nacional Asuncion 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

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Sportivo Luqueno 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Nacional Asuncion 3–1–2 Sportivo Luqueno (6 last)

Nacional Asuncion3-2Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno1-2Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion1-1Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno2-1Nacional Asuncion
Nacional Asuncion4-0Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Luqueno2-1Nacional Asuncion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nacional Asuncion 1576 · Sportivo Luqueno 1474

	Nacional Asuncion	Draw	Sportivo Luqueno
Our model	54%	26%	20%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.65 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nacional Asuncion (rating 1576 vs 1474).
H2H favours Nacional Asuncion: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nacional Asuncion	Sportivo Luqueno
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.9	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/50/20%	20/70/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.6	2.2 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.5	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.40

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.67 → 1.67	Pinn 1.79 ★
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.49
2	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7% Pinnacle margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
01:08 +22’	1.67	3.40	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:23	1.74	3.59	4.60
21:46 +4’	1.75▲	3.55▼	4.60
07:20	1.79▲	3.49▼	4.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nacional Asuncion 3–1–2 Sportivo Luqueno

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Date	Home	Score	Away
27/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	3-2 HT 1-2	Sportivo Luqueno
27/01/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	1-2 HT 1-0	Nacional Asuncion
13/10/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	1-1 HT 0-1	Sportivo Luqueno
29/07/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	2-1 HT 0-0	Nacional Asuncion
17/05/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Nacional Asuncion	4-0 HT 4-0	Sportivo Luqueno
10/03/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Luqueno	2-1 HT 0-1	Nacional Asuncion

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nacional Asuncion	Sportivo Luqueno
Sportivo Trinidense	1-1 D	1-4 L
Guarani Asuncion	0-0 D	2-1 W
Olimpia Asuncion	2-0 W	1-2 L
Libertad Asuncion	2-1 W	1-2 L
Rubio Nu	1-1 D	0-0 D
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Nacional Asuncion (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nacional Asuncion

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/08	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
09/08	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	5	D
03/08	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
29/07	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
25/07	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	5	3	D
24/05	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	2-1	3	5	W
15/05	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	10	6	D
10/05	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	4	4	W
04/05	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	5	1	W
24/04	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	14	7	W

Sportivo Luqueno

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
09/08	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	2-0	10	2	W
01/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-3	2	4	L
29/07	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-4	2	5	L
26/07	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	2-1	4	4	W
23/05	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	3	4	L
17/05	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	8	4	D
11/05	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-3	2	2	L
03/05	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	5	6	D
25/04	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	2	6	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nacional Asuncion win (54%). Probabilities: Nacional Asuncion 54%, draw 26%, Sportivo Luqueno 20%.

How many goals are expected in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?

The model expects 2.65 goals (Nacional Asuncion 1.7 · Sportivo Luqueno 0.95), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Nacional Asuncion vs Sportivo Luqueno?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.