Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 24/08, 23:30

Prediction: Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo San Lorenzo

Team pages: Libertad Asuncion · Sportivo San Lorenzo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.97Total

Libertad Asuncion2.14

Sportivo San Lorenzo0.83

1X2

66% 22% 12%

Libertad Asuncion Draw Sportivo San Lorenzo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

2-0

Recent form · 10 last

Libertad Asuncion 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Sportivo San Lorenzo 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Libertad Asuncion 5–1–0 Sportivo San Lorenzo (6 last)

Libertad Asuncion5-0Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo San Lorenzo0-7Libertad Asuncion
Sportivo San Lorenzo1-2Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion2-1Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo San Lorenzo2-2Libertad Asuncion
Libertad Asuncion3-0Sportivo San Lorenzo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Libertad Asuncion 1550 · Sportivo San Lorenzo 1431

	Libertad Asuncion	Draw	Sportivo San Lorenzo
Our model	67%	21%	12%
Market	66%	22%	12%

Estimated total (ours) 2.97 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Libertad Asuncion (rating 1550 vs 1431).
H2H favours Libertad Asuncion: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Libertad Asuncion	Sportivo San Lorenzo
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.1	0.3 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.6	0.2 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.7	1.6 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.2	2.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.10

27.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)1.85

2 (+1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 04:09

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Pinn 1.37
X	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.56 ★
2	7.50 → 7.50	Pinn 7.84

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
03:55 +14’	1.36	4.10	7.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
23:23	1.37	4.61	7.78
21:41 +3’	1.37▲	4.56▼	7.71▼
10:25 +1’	1.38▲	4.52▼	7.69▼
07:20	1.40▲	4.40▼	7.35▼
10:25 +2’	1.40▼	4.44▲	7.38▲
11:28	1.37▼	4.56▲	7.84▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Libertad Asuncion 5–1–0 Sportivo San Lorenzo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	5-0 HT 2-0	Sportivo San Lorenzo
03/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0-7 HT 0-3	Libertad Asuncion
20/09/23 Paraguay Cup	Sportivo San Lorenzo	1-2 HT 0-1	Libertad Asuncion
28/07/22 Paraguay Cup	Libertad Asuncion	2-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo San Lorenzo
21/11/20 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo San Lorenzo	2-2 HT 2-1	Libertad Asuncion
27/09/20 Paraguay Division Profesional	Libertad Asuncion	3-0 HT 1-0	Sportivo San Lorenzo

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Libertad Asuncion	Sportivo San Lorenzo
Sportivo Luqueno	2-1 W	0-2 L
Sportivo Trinidense	2-1 W	0-3 L
Guarani Asuncion	1-2 L	0-1 L
Deportivo Recoleta	4-1 W	1-1 D
Olimpia Asuncion	1-0 W	1-0 W
2 de Mayo	0-0 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Libertad Asuncion (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Libertad Asuncion

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	7	3	W
10/08	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	3	6	W
02/08	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	5	5	L
30/07	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	4-1	6	4	W
26/07	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	7	1	W
24/05	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	1-2	8	5	L
14/05	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	2	5	D
11/05	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
02/05	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	5-0	2	0	W
26/04	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	3-2	4	11	W

Sportivo San Lorenzo

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
09/08	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	2	2	L
03/08	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-3	4	1	L
30/07	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	1	0	L
25/07	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	1	7	D
22/05	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
17/05	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-0	3	4	D
10/05	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	4	4	W
02/05	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	0-5	5	0	L
27/04	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Libertad Asuncion win (66%). Probabilities: Libertad Asuncion 66%, draw 22%, Sportivo San Lorenzo 12%.

How many goals are expected in Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?

The model expects 2.97 goals (Libertad Asuncion 2.14 · Sportivo San Lorenzo 0.83), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo San Lorenzo?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.