Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 22/08, 21:00

Prediction: Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta

Team pages: Sportivo Ameliano · Deportivo Recoleta

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.04Total

Sportivo Ameliano1.84

Deportivo Recoleta1.2

1X2

51% 26% 23%

Sportivo Ameliano Draw Deportivo Recoleta

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sportivo Ameliano 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLLDDDWL

Deportivo Recoleta 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLWDLWWL

Head-to-head

Sportivo Ameliano 1–2–3 Deportivo Recoleta (6 last)

Sportivo Ameliano3-2Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta1-1Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano1-4Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta3-1Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano1-2Deportivo Recoleta
Deportivo Recoleta1-1Sportivo Ameliano

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sportivo Ameliano 1459 · Deportivo Recoleta 1490

	Sportivo Ameliano	Draw	Deportivo Recoleta
Our model	51%	25%	24%
Market	50%	28%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.04 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Deportivo Recoleta: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sportivo Ameliano	Deportivo Recoleta
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.8 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.7	2.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0.1	4 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.25

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 17:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.80▼	Pinn 1.91
X	3.20 → 3.25▲	Pinn 3.88 ★
2	3.60 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
03:06 +2’	1.90	3.20	3.60
08:22 +1’	2.00▲	3.10▼	3.40▼
16:48 +15’	1.80▼	3.25▲	4.00▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
03:08 +1’	2.05	3.56	3.36
07:31 +1’	2.11▲	3.53▼	3.24▼
22:52 +2’	2.13▲	3.57▲	3.27▲
11:21 +4’	2.14▲	3.59▲	3.29▲
16:54 +10’	1.90▼	3.92▲	3.69▲
18:41 +9’	1.91▲	3.88▼	3.70▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Both teams to score

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sportivo Ameliano 1–2–3 Deportivo Recoleta

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
11/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	3-2 HT 2-1	Deportivo Recoleta
10/03/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	1-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Ameliano
29/09/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	1-4 HT 0-2	Deportivo Recoleta
21/07/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	3-1 HT 0-1	Sportivo Ameliano
11/05/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	1-2 HT 0-1	Deportivo Recoleta
28/02/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Deportivo Recoleta	1-1 HT 0-0	Sportivo Ameliano

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sportivo Ameliano	Deportivo Recoleta
Olimpia Asuncion	1-2 L	2-3 L
Cerro Porteno	1-0 W	2-1 W
2 de Mayo	1-1 D	1-2 L
Rubio Nu	1-1 D	3-1 W
Nacional Asuncion	1-1 D	3-2 W
Guarani Asuncion	0-1 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 2 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Deportivo Recoleta (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sportivo Ameliano

DDWLLDDDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-2	3	7	L
08/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
01/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
28/07	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
25/07	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
24/05	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
16/05	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
11/05	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	3-2	6	5	W
03/05	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
25/04	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	6	3	D

Deportivo Recoleta

LWLLWDLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-2	1-2	8	1	L
07/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-1	5	5	W
03/08	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	3-2	0	3	W
30/07	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-4	8	4	L
25/07	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	13	7	D
23/05	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	2-1	1	5	W
15/05	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-3	4	2	L
11/05	Sportivo Ameliano Paraguay Division Profesional	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
03/05	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	2-1	3	4	W
24/04	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-2	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Sportivo Ameliano win (51%). Probabilities: Sportivo Ameliano 51%, draw 26%, Deportivo Recoleta 23%.

How many goals are expected in Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta?

The model expects 3.04 goals (Sportivo Ameliano 1.84 · Deportivo Recoleta 1.2), with a 55% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Sportivo Ameliano vs Deportivo Recoleta?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.