Football · Paraguay Division Profesional · 16/08, 23:30

Prediction: Olimpia Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano

Team pages: Olimpia Asuncion · Sportivo Ameliano

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.5Total

Olimpia Asuncion1.62

Sportivo Ameliano0.88

1X2

54% 27% 20%

Olimpia Asuncion Draw Sportivo Ameliano

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Olimpia Asuncion 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWWWLLLWL

Sportivo Ameliano 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DDWLLDDDWL

Head-to-head

Olimpia Asuncion 2–4–0 Sportivo Ameliano (6 last)

Olimpia Asuncion1-1Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano0-1Olimpia Asuncion
Olimpia Asuncion2-1Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano1-1Olimpia Asuncion
Olimpia Asuncion0-0Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano2-2Olimpia Asuncion

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Olimpia Asuncion 1523 · Sportivo Ameliano 1467

	Olimpia Asuncion	Draw	Sportivo Ameliano
Our model	54%	27%	19%
Market	54%	26%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 2.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Olimpia Asuncion (rating 1523 vs 1467).
H2H favours Olimpia Asuncion: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Olimpia Asuncion	Sportivo Ameliano
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.5	1.4 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0.2	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.40

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.90

2 (+0.75)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.82

Under 2.251.98

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Pinn 1.66
X	3.40 → 3.40	Pinn 3.63
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 5.11 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2% Pinnacle margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:02 +2’	1.65	3.40	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
08:38	1.64	3.65	5.03
09:39 +1’	1.65▲	3.70▲	5.11▲
17:04	1.66▲	3.63▼	5.11

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 2.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Olimpia Asuncion 2–4–0 Sportivo Ameliano

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/05/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Olimpia Asuncion	1-1 HT 0-1	Sportivo Ameliano
28/02/26 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	0-1 HT 0-0	Olimpia Asuncion
05/10/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Olimpia Asuncion	2-1 HT 0-1	Sportivo Ameliano
27/07/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	1-1 HT 0-1	Olimpia Asuncion
13/04/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Olimpia Asuncion	0-0 HT 0-0	Sportivo Ameliano
31/01/25 Paraguay Division Profesional	Sportivo Ameliano	2-2 HT 2-2	Olimpia Asuncion

Standings · Paraguay Division Profesional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Deportivo Recoleta	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cerro Porteno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guarani Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Olimpia Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	2 de Mayo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Libertad Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Nacional Asuncion	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Rubio Nu	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo San Lorenzo	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Ameliano	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Luqueno	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sportivo Trinidense	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Olimpia Asuncion	Sportivo Ameliano
2 de Mayo	0-1 L	1-1 D
Rubio Nu	5-0 W	1-1 D
Nacional Asuncion	0-2 L	1-1 D
Deportivo Recoleta	3-2 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Sportivo Ameliano (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Olimpia Asuncion

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	6	5	L
02/08	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	2-0	5-0	5	2	W
29/07	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-2	11	3	L
26/07	Libertad Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
18/07	Flamengo America Friendlies	1-3	2-4	7	4	L
28/05	Audax Italiano Copa Sudamericana	0-0	3-1	2	5	W
23/05	Sportivo Luqueno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	2-1	6	4	W
21/05	Vasco da Gama Copa Sudamericana	0-1	3-1	13	7	W
15/05	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	3-2	3	2	W
10/05	Sportivo San Lorenzo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	0-1	6	4	L

Sportivo Ameliano

DDWLLDDDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Independiente FBC Paraguay Cup	0-0	0-1	2	6	L
08/08	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-0	2	4	W
01/08	2 de Mayo Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	7	3	D
28/07	Rubio Nu Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	5	2	D
25/07	Nacional Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
24/05	Sportivo Trinidense Paraguay Division Profesional	1-1	1-2	3	5	L
16/05	Guarani Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
11/05	Deportivo Recoleta Paraguay Division Profesional	2-1	3-2	6	5	W
03/05	Olimpia Asuncion Paraguay Division Profesional	1-0	1-1	0	5	D
25/04	Cerro Porteno Paraguay Division Profesional	0-1	1-1	6	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Olimpia Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Olimpia Asuncion win (54%). Probabilities: Olimpia Asuncion 54%, draw 27%, Sportivo Ameliano 20%.

How many goals are expected in Olimpia Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?

The model expects 2.5 goals (Olimpia Asuncion 1.62 · Sportivo Ameliano 0.88), with a 53% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Olimpia Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.