Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Burgess Hill Town vs Aveley

Team pages: Burgess Hill Town · Aveley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.74Total

Burgess Hill Town1.87

Aveley1.87

1X2

38% 24% 38%

Burgess Hill Town Draw Aveley

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Burgess Hill Town 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWDDWW

Aveley 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

DLWWLWLLLL

Head-to-head

Burgess Hill Town 0–1–1 Aveley (2 last)

Burgess Hill Town2-5Aveley
Aveley3-3Burgess Hill Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Burgess Hill Town 1535 · Aveley 1489

	Burgess Hill Town	Draw	Aveley
Our model	38%	23%	38%
Market	38%	25%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.74 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Burgess Hill Town (rating 1535 vs 1489).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Burgess Hill Town	Aveley
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 1.4	1.7 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.7 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	33/0/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 4	4.7 / 7.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	7 / 1	2.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.38

X3.60

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:38

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:35 +3’	2.38	3.60	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Burgess Hill Town 0–1–1 Aveley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/12/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Burgess Hill Town	2-5	Aveley
15/08/25 England Isthmian Premier Division	Aveley	3-3 HT 1-1	Burgess Hill Town

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Welling	10	8	0	2	20	9	24
2	Enfield Town	9	7	0	2	25	12	21
3	Dartford	10	7	0	3	16	11	21
4	Carshalton Ath	11	7	0	4	18	19	21
5	Lewes	10	6	1	3	15	11	19
6	Ramsgate	10	5	1	4	23	14	16
7	Dulwich	8	5	1	2	18	9	16
8	Eastbourne Borough	9	5	1	3	18	11	16
9	Leatherhead	9	4	3	2	17	15	15
10	St Albans	8	4	2	2	17	13	14
11	Burgess Hill Town	8	3	4	1	15	10	13
12	Cray Wanderers	8	3	3	2	18	12	12
13	Chatham Town	8	4	0	4	16	13	12
14	Cheshunt	10	2	5	3	9	13	11
15	Wingate & Finchley	8	3	2	3	13	18	11
16	Aveley	10	3	1	6	17	18	10
17	Brentwood Town	9	3	0	6	15	16	9
18	Maldon Tiptree FC	11	3	0	8	14	31	9
19	AFC Whyteleafe	10	1	3	6	11	20	6
20	Three Bridges	9	1	2	6	16	28	5
21	Whitehawk	10	1	2	7	10	22	5
22	Stanway Rovers	9	1	1	7	7	23	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Burgess Hill Town	Aveley
Maldon Tiptree FC	4-1 W	0-1 L
Whitehawk	1-1 D	3-2 W
Cheshunt	1-1 D	1-2 L
Leatherhead	2-2 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Burgess Hill Town (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Burgess Hill Town

WLWDDWDDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
26/09	Winslow Utd England Isthmian Premier Division	–	6-2	–	–	W
12/09	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
31/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
28/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	2-1	4	8	W
22/08	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
15/08	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/08	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
08/08	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
25/04	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-2	–	–	W

Aveley

DLWWLWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-2	6	0	L
29/09	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
14/09	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	3-4	11	6	L
12/09	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
31/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	5-1	–	–	W
15/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
11/08	Maldon Tiptree FC England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Burgess Hill Town vs Aveley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Burgess Hill Town win (38%). Probabilities: Burgess Hill Town 38%, draw 24%, Aveley 38%.

How many goals are expected in Burgess Hill Town vs Aveley?

The model expects 3.74 goals (Burgess Hill Town 1.87 · Aveley 1.87), with a 60% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Burgess Hill Town vs Aveley?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.