Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 19/10, 20:45

Prediction: Aveley vs Maldon Tiptree FC

Team pages: Aveley · Maldon Tiptree FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.57Total

Aveley2.43

Maldon Tiptree FC1.14

1X2

65% 20% 15%

Aveley Draw Maldon Tiptree FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Aveley 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WWLWLLLLDW

Maldon Tiptree FC 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLD

Head-to-head

Aveley 1–1 Maldon Tiptree FC (2 last)

Maldon Tiptree FC1-0Aveley
Aveley5-3Maldon Tiptree FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Aveley 1484 · Maldon Tiptree FC 1412

	Aveley	Draw	Maldon Tiptree FC
Our model	65%	20%	15%
Market	65%	20%	15%

Estimated total (ours) 3.57 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Aveley (rating 1484 vs 1412).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Aveley	Maldon Tiptree FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	1 / 2.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	0.7 / 2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/0/67%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 7.3	2.3 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.36

X4.50

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.36 → 1.36	Bet365 1.36
X	4.50 → 4.50	Bet365 4.50
2	5.75 → 5.75	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 13%

Time*	1	X	2
13:56 +20’	1.36	4.50	5.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Aveley 1–0–1 Maldon Tiptree FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
11/08/26 England Isthmian Premier Division	Maldon Tiptree FC	1-0	Aveley
22/10/21 England Isthmian Division One North	Aveley	5-3 HT 3-0	Maldon Tiptree FC

Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	12	9	1	2	33	16	28
2	Welling	12	9	0	3	24	12	27
3	Lewes	13	8	2	3	20	14	26
4	Dartford	12	8	0	4	19	14	24
5	Carshalton Ath	14	7	1	6	21	24	22
6	Ramsgate	12	6	1	5	27	17	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	6	1	3	19	11	19
8	Burgess Hill Town	11	4	5	2	20	15	17
9	St Albans	9	5	2	2	18	13	17
10	Dulwich	11	5	2	4	20	16	17
11	Wingate & Finchley	11	5	2	4	20	21	17
12	Chatham Town	10	5	0	5	19	14	15
13	Leatherhead	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
14	AFC Whyteleafe	13	4	3	6	20	22	15
15	Cheshunt	12	3	6	3	12	15	15
16	Aveley	12	4	2	6	19	19	14
17	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	19	14	12
18	Maldon Tiptree FC	13	3	1	9	16	34	10
19	Brentwood Town	10	3	0	7	15	19	9
20	Three Bridges	12	2	3	7	23	34	9
21	Whitehawk	13	1	3	9	12	32	6
22	Stanway Rovers	11	1	1	9	9	30	4

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Aveley	Maldon Tiptree FC
Burgess Hill Town	1-1 D	1-4 L
Lewes	0-2 L	1-1 D
Whitehawk	3-2 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Aveley

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
10/10	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-1	–	–	D
06/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-2	6	0	L
29/09	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-2	5	3	L
14/09	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	3-4	11	6	L
12/09	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
31/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
22/08	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	5-1	–	–	W
15/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W

Maldon Tiptree FC

WLLLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-1	3	4	D
10/10	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
06/10	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-1	–	–	L
03/10	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/09	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	0-3	1-5	4	4	L
26/09	Egham England FA Trophy	–	0-2	–	–	L
22/09	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-5	5	2	L
19/09	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
15/09	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Aveley vs Maldon Tiptree FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Aveley win (65%). Probabilities: Aveley 65%, draw 20%, Maldon Tiptree FC 15%.

How many goals are expected in Aveley vs Maldon Tiptree FC?

The model expects 3.57 goals (Aveley 2.43 · Maldon Tiptree FC 1.14), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Aveley vs Maldon Tiptree FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.