Football · England Southern Premier League South · 31/08, 16:00

Prediction: Gloucester vs Evesham United

Team pages: Gloucester · Evesham United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Gloucester1.91

Evesham United1.11

1X2

56% 23% 21%

Gloucester Draw Evesham United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Gloucester 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WLWDLLLDWD

Evesham United 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLWLDWLWLL

Head-to-head

Gloucester 2–2–0 Evesham United (4 last)

Gloucester2-2Evesham United
Evesham United1-1Gloucester
Evesham United1-7Gloucester
Evesham United1-2Gloucester

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gloucester 1514 · Evesham United 1469

	Gloucester	Draw	Evesham United
Our model	55%	24%	21%
Market	56%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gloucester (rating 1514 vs 1469).
H2H favours Gloucester: 2-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gloucester	Evesham United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	1.4 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.10

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:59

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.10 → 4.10	Pinn 4.69 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
19:57 +2’	1.60	4.10	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
19:42 +17’	1.56	3.94	4.69

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gloucester 2–2–0 Evesham United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/01/26 England Southern Premier League South	Gloucester	2-2	Evesham United
25/08/25 England Southern Premier League South	Evesham United	1-1	Gloucester
20/07/19 Club Friendly List	Evesham United	1-7 HT 0-3	Gloucester
10/07/14 Club Friendly List	Evesham United	1-2 HT 1-0	Gloucester

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	5	4	1	0	12	6	13
2	Plymouth Parkway	5	3	1	1	15	6	10
3	Chertsey Town	5	3	1	1	11	6	10
4	Hanworth Villa	5	3	1	1	7	2	10
5	Frome Town	5	3	0	2	9	4	9
6	Chichester City	5	3	0	2	8	5	9
7	Taunton Town	5	3	0	2	15	13	9
8	Poole Town	5	3	0	2	7	7	9
9	Bath City	5	2	2	1	6	5	8
9	Yate Town	5	2	2	1	6	5	8
11	Gosport Borough	5	2	1	2	7	6	7
12	Bracknell Town	5	2	1	2	7	12	7
13	Berkhamsted	5	2	0	3	8	10	6
14	Evesham United	5	2	0	3	9	13	6
15	Wimborne Town	5	1	2	2	4	4	5
16	Gloucester	5	1	2	2	7	8	5
17	Hanwell Town	5	1	2	2	4	6	5
18	Basingstoke	5	1	1	3	9	11	4
19	Havant and W	5	1	1	3	5	9	4
19	Sholing	5	1	1	3	5	9	4
21	Chippenham Town	5	1	1	3	5	11	4
22	Malvern Town	5	0	2	3	6	14	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gloucester	Evesham United
Poole Town	2-2 D	1-1 D
Walton & Hersham	1-0 W	3-1 W
Yate Town	1-2 L	0-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gloucester

WLWDLLLDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
22/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-3	5	5	L
08/08	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
04/05	Farnham England Southern Premier League South	–	1-5	–	–	L
29/04	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-2	3	7	D
25/04	Walton & Hersham England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/04	Dorchester England Southern Premier League South	–	5-0	–	–	W

Evesham United

DLWLDWLWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/08	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
15/08	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	–	3-0	–	–	W
11/08	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	0-1	0-4	3	4	L
08/08	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	4-2	–	–	W
25/04	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D
18/04	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
11/04	Walton & Hersham England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
06/04	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-3	–	–	L
03/04	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gloucester vs Evesham United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gloucester win (56%). Probabilities: Gloucester 56%, draw 23%, Evesham United 21%.

How many goals are expected in Gloucester vs Evesham United?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Gloucester 1.91 · Evesham United 1.11), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gloucester vs Evesham United?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.