Football · England Southern Premier League South · 20/10, 20:45

Prediction: Chertsey Town vs Evesham United

Team pages: Chertsey Town · Evesham United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.34Total

Chertsey Town2.19

Evesham United1.15

1X2

60% 22% 18%

Chertsey Town Draw Evesham United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Chertsey Town 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLLWDLDD

Evesham United 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLWDWLLLL

Head-to-head

Chertsey Town 1–1–0 Evesham United (2 last)

Evesham United1-1Chertsey Town
Chertsey Town4-0Evesham United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chertsey Town 1539 · Evesham United 1457

	Chertsey Town	Draw	Evesham United
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.34 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chertsey Town (rating 1539 vs 1457).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chertsey Town	Evesham United
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.8	1.1 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1	0.3 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/33/67%	33/67/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6.7	1.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6.7 / 0.7	2.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.10

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:13 +10’	1.50	4.10	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chertsey Town 1–1–0 Evesham United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 England Southern Premier League South	Evesham United	1-1	Chertsey Town
15/11/25 England Southern Premier League South	Chertsey Town	4-0	Evesham United

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Poole Town	12	9	0	3	22	13	27
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	7	2	2	26	12	23
3	Uxbridge	10	7	2	1	20	8	23
4	Hanworth Villa	12	7	2	3	24	14	23
5	Bath City	12	7	2	3	18	10	23
6	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	20	16	19
7	Chichester City	12	6	1	5	20	20	19
8	Gosport Borough	12	5	3	4	19	14	18
9	Chertsey Town	11	4	4	3	23	18	16
10	Taunton Town	11	5	1	5	28	25	16
11	Berkhamsted	11	5	1	5	14	14	16
12	Wimborne Town	10	4	3	3	17	9	15
13	Bracknell Town	12	4	2	6	13	23	14
14	Evesham United	12	4	1	7	15	24	13
15	Basingstoke	12	3	3	6	19	25	12
16	Yate Town	11	3	3	5	15	24	12
17	Sholing	10	3	2	5	12	16	11
18	Hanwell Town	11	2	5	4	10	14	11
19	Malvern Town	12	3	2	7	19	31	11
20	Gloucester	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
21	Havant and W	12	2	3	7	18	25	9
22	Chippenham Town	11	2	2	7	10	24	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chertsey Town	Evesham United
Chippenham Town	2-2 D	2-0 W
Poole Town	1-3 L	1-3 L
Chichester City	2-2 D	3-0 W
Hanworth Villa	1-4 L	1-4 L
Berkhamsted	4-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Evesham United (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chertsey Town

WDWLLWDLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
10/10	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
29/09	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/09	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
12/09	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	5-0	–	–	W
31/08	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/08	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-2	9	13	L
22/08	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	4-2	–	–	W
15/08	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	4-1	–	–	W

Evesham United

WLLWDWLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
13/10	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-2	6	4	L
10/10	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
03/10	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-0	2	1	W
12/09	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D
31/08	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/08	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
15/08	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	–	3-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chertsey Town vs Evesham United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chertsey Town win (60%). Probabilities: Chertsey Town 60%, draw 22%, Evesham United 18%.

How many goals are expected in Chertsey Town vs Evesham United?

The model expects 3.34 goals (Chertsey Town 2.19 · Evesham United 1.15), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chertsey Town vs Evesham United?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.