Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Welling vs AFC Whyteleafe

Team pages: Welling · AFC Whyteleafe

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

Welling2.11

AFC Whyteleafe1.53

1X2

50% 23% 27%

Welling Draw AFC Whyteleafe

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Welling 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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AFC Whyteleafe 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Welling 1548 · AFC Whyteleafe 1420

	Welling	Draw	AFC Whyteleafe
Our model	50%	23%	27%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Welling (rating 1548 vs 1420).
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Welling	AFC Whyteleafe
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.3	1.2 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.8 / 7	2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0	2.5 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.70

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:48

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
20:33 +15’	1.80	3.70	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Dartford	9	7	0	2	15	9	21
2	Enfield Town	8	6	0	2	23	11	18
3	Welling	8	6	0	2	18	9	18
4	Carshalton Ath	9	6	0	3	15	13	18
5	Dulwich	8	5	1	2	18	9	16
6	Lewes	9	5	1	3	14	11	16
7	Leatherhead	9	4	3	2	17	15	15
8	St Albans	8	4	2	2	17	13	14
9	Ramsgate	8	4	1	3	19	10	13
10	Eastbourne Borough	8	4	1	3	14	11	13
11	Cray Wanderers	8	3	3	2	18	12	12
12	Chatham Town	8	4	0	4	16	13	12
13	Wingate & Finchley	8	3	2	3	13	18	11
14	Burgess Hill Town	7	2	4	1	11	9	10
15	Aveley	9	3	1	5	16	16	10
16	Maldon Tiptree FC	9	3	0	6	13	26	9
17	Cheshunt	9	1	5	3	7	12	8
18	Brentwood Town	8	2	0	6	13	15	6
19	AFC Whyteleafe	8	1	3	4	10	17	6
20	Whitehawk	9	1	2	6	10	21	5
21	Three Bridges	9	1	2	6	16	28	5
22	Stanway Rovers	8	1	1	6	6	21	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Welling	AFC Whyteleafe
Cheshunt	2-0 W	2-2 D
Wingate & Finchley	4-1 W	2-2 D
Ramsgate	1-0 W	1-5 L
Stanway Rovers	4-0 W	4-0 W
Leatherhead	1-4 L	0-0 D
Whitehawk	2-0 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 3 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Welling (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Welling

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/09	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	4-1	10	2	W
31/08	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/08	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
22/08	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-0	–	–	W
15/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	4-0	9	7	W
11/08	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
08/08	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/04	Billericay Town England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	2-2	5	4	D
18/04	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W

AFC Whyteleafe

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
30/09	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-2	4	3	L
26/09	Whitehawk England FA Trophy	–	1-4	–	–	L
15/09	Leatherhead England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
12/09	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-0	–	–	W
31/08	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-5	–	–	L
29/08	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
22/08	Lewes England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
15/08	Wingate & Finchley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/08	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-3	–	–	L
08/08	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Welling vs AFC Whyteleafe?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Welling win (50%). Probabilities: Welling 50%, draw 23%, AFC Whyteleafe 27%.

How many goals are expected in Welling vs AFC Whyteleafe?

The model expects 3.64 goals (Welling 2.11 · AFC Whyteleafe 1.53), with a 59% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Welling vs AFC Whyteleafe?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.