Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Leatherhead vs St Albans

Team pages: Leatherhead · St Albans

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Leatherhead1.65

St Albans1.71

1X2

36% 25% 39%

Leatherhead Draw St Albans

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Leatherhead 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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St Albans 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leatherhead 1545 · St Albans 1541

	Leatherhead	Draw	St Albans
Our model	36%	25%	39%
Market	36%	25%	39%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leatherhead	St Albans
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.7 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/25/25%	67/33/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.5	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.3	3.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.60

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.98

2 (0)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:08

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:01 +7’	2.45	3.60	2.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	16	12	1	3	45	18	37
2	Welling	17	12	1	4	36	18	37
3	Eastbourne Borough	16	11	1	4	31	18	34
4	Dartford	16	10	0	6	28	23	30
5	Lewes	17	9	3	5	26	22	30
6	Ramsgate	15	8	1	6	33	19	25
7	Carshalton Ath	17	8	1	8	27	34	25
8	Leatherhead	14	7	3	4	28	21	24
9	St Albans	13	7	2	4	25	19	23
10	Chatham Town	16	7	1	8	28	25	22
11	Wingate & Finchley	15	6	4	5	28	29	22
12	Burgess Hill Town	16	5	7	4	26	28	22
13	AFC Whyteleafe	16	6	3	7	28	27	21
14	Dulwich	17	6	3	8	29	33	21
15	Aveley	16	6	2	8	25	28	20
16	Maldon Tiptree FC	18	6	2	10	26	40	20
17	Cray Wanderers	11	5	3	3	25	15	18
18	Cheshunt	16	4	6	6	19	27	18
19	Brentwood Town	15	5	1	9	25	28	16
20	Three Bridges	16	2	4	10	25	42	10
21	Whitehawk	17	1	5	11	16	39	8
22	Stanway Rovers	16	2	2	12	14	40	8

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leatherhead	St Albans
Stanway Rovers	7-2 W	4-1 W
Welling	0-1 L	1-3 L
Cheshunt	1-2 L	1-1 D
Three Bridges	3-3 D	4-0 W
Aveley	2-1 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Leatherhead (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leatherhead

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
03/11	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
31/10	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	7-2	–	–	W
27/10	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	0-1	4	1	L
10/10	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/09	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-3	–	–	D
15/09	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-0	6	3	D
12/09	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-1	–	–	W
31/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/08	Eastbourne Borough England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W

St Albans

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
02/11	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
31/10	Whitehawk England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
27/10	Burgess Hill Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-1	–	–	W
10/10	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/09	Cray Wanderers England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	3-3	6	3	D
12/09	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-0	–	–	W
31/08	Cheshunt England Isthmian Premier Division	1-0	1-1	4	6	D
29/08	Stanway Rovers England Isthmian Premier Division	–	4-1	–	–	W
22/08	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leatherhead vs St Albans?

According to our model, the most likely result is an St Albans win (39%). Probabilities: Leatherhead 36%, draw 25%, St Albans 39%.

How many goals are expected in Leatherhead vs St Albans?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Leatherhead 1.65 · St Albans 1.71), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Leatherhead vs St Albans?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.