Football · England Southern Premier League South · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Gloucester vs Chertsey Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

Gloucester1.95

Chertsey Town1.17

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Gloucester Draw Chertsey Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gloucester 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDLWWLWW

Chertsey Town 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLLWWDWW

Head-to-head

Gloucester 2–1–1 Chertsey Town (4 last)

Chertsey Town2-2Gloucester
Gloucester2-0Chertsey Town
Chertsey Town1-0Gloucester
Gloucester3-1Chertsey Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gloucester 1549 · Chertsey Town 1522

	Gloucester	Draw	Chertsey Town
Our model	54%	24%	22%
Market	54%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gloucester: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gloucester	Chertsey Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.3	0.8 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/50/17%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.8 / 2.2	3.2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.2	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.67

X3.70

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.88

2 (+0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:06

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.67▼	Bet365 1.67
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.86 ★
2	3.40 → 4.20▲	Pinn 4.33

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.9% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
17:08 +42’	1.85	3.60	3.40
16:47 +19’	1.67▼	3.70▲	4.20▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:06 +1’	1.63	3.86	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gloucester 2–1–1 Chertsey Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England Southern Premier League South	Chertsey Town	2-2	Gloucester
22/11/25 England Southern Premier League South	Gloucester	2-0	Chertsey Town
12/04/25 England Southern Premier League South	Chertsey Town	1-0	Gloucester
14/12/24 England Southern Premier League South	Gloucester	3-1	Chertsey Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Basingstoke	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bath City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Berkhamsted	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bracknell Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chertsey Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chichester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chippenham Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Evesham United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Frome Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gloucester	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gosport Borough	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hanwell Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hanworth Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Havant and W	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Malvern Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Plymouth Parkway	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Poole Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sholing	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Taunton Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Uxbridge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wimborne Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yate Town	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gloucester	Chertsey Town
Farnham	1-5 L	0-1 L
Poole Town	2-2 D	0-1 L
Walton & Hersham	1-0 W	2-1 W
Yate Town	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Chertsey Town (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gloucester

WLWDLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Weston Super Mare UK Friendlies	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
25/07	Barry Town UK Friendlies	1-0	1-0	0	0	W
18/07	Haverfordwest County UK Friendlies	0-0	0-1	2	0	L
11/07	Newport County UK Friendlies	0-1	2-1	3	5	W
07/07	Bristol Manor Farm Club Friendly List	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
04/05	Farnham England Southern Premier League South	–	1-5	–	–	L
29/04	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-2	3	7	D
25/04	Walton & Hersham England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/04	Dorchester England Southern Premier League South	–	5-0	–	–	W

Chertsey Town

LDWLLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/07	Westfield UK Friendlies	2-2	4-2	5	3	W
28/07	Chesham UK Friendlies	2-0	2-1	3	0	W
25/07	Hampton & Richmond UK Friendlies	0-1	1-1	1	2	D
21/07	Wealdstone UK Friendlies	0-0	2-0	7	1	W
25/04	Hungerford Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/04	Weymouth England Southern Premier League South	–	1-5	–	–	L
11/04	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
06/04	Walton & Hersham England Southern Premier League South	0-1	2-1	3	7	W
03/04	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
28/03	Farnham England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gloucester vs Chertsey Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gloucester win (54%). Probabilities: Gloucester 54%, draw 24%, Chertsey Town 22%.

How many goals are expected in Gloucester vs Chertsey Town?

The model expects 3.12 goals (Gloucester 1.95 · Chertsey Town 1.17), with a 52% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Gloucester vs Chertsey Town?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.