Football · England Southern Premier League South · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Evesham United vs Plymouth Parkway

Team pages: Evesham United · Plymouth Parkway

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Evesham United1.61

Plymouth Parkway1.56

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Evesham United Draw Plymouth Parkway

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Evesham United 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WDLWLDWLWL

Plymouth Parkway 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWWDLW

Head-to-head

Evesham United 0–1–2 Plymouth Parkway (3 last)

Evesham United1-1Plymouth Parkway
Plymouth Parkway1-0Evesham United
Plymouth Parkway2-0Evesham United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Evesham United 1476 · Plymouth Parkway 1536

	Evesham United	Draw	Plymouth Parkway
Our model	38%	26%	36%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Plymouth Parkway (rating 1476 vs 1536).
H2H favours Plymouth Parkway: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Evesham United	Plymouth Parkway
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.9	2.9 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1	1.5 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/0/100%	100/0/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7	1 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 1.2 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:54 +3’	2.30	3.60	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Evesham United 0–1–2 Plymouth Parkway

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 England Southern Premier League South	Evesham United	1-1	Plymouth Parkway
01/11/25 England Southern Premier League South	Plymouth Parkway	1-0	Evesham United
05/04/22 England Southern League Division One	Plymouth Parkway	2-0 HT 1-0	Evesham United

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chertsey Town	4	3	1	0	10	4	10
2	Uxbridge	4	3	1	0	10	5	10
3	Hanworth Villa	4	3	0	1	7	2	9
4	Bath City	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
4	Yate Town	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
6	Plymouth Parkway	4	2	1	1	12	5	7
7	Frome Town	4	2	0	2	7	3	6
8	Taunton Town	4	2	0	2	11	10	6
9	Chichester City	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
10	Poole Town	4	2	0	2	5	6	6
11	Evesham United	4	2	0	2	8	10	6
12	Hanwell Town	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
13	Wimborne Town	4	1	1	2	4	4	4
14	Basingstoke	4	1	1	2	6	7	4
15	Gloucester	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
16	Gosport Borough	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
17	Sholing	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
18	Chippenham Town	4	1	1	2	4	9	4
19	Bracknell Town	4	1	1	2	4	11	4
20	Berkhamsted	4	1	0	3	6	9	3
21	Havant and W	4	1	0	3	2	6	3
22	Malvern Town	4	0	2	2	4	10	2

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Evesham United	Plymouth Parkway
Basingstoke	4-2 W	3-0 W
Gosport Borough	1-3 L	6-3 W
Tiverton Town	2-1 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Plymouth Parkway (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Evesham United

WDLWLDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
15/08	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	–	3-0	–	–	W
11/08	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	0-1	0-4	3	4	L
08/08	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	4-2	–	–	W
25/04	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D
18/04	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
11/04	Walton & Hersham England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
06/04	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-3	–	–	L
03/04	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/03	Tiverton Town England Southern Premier League South	0-1	2-1	11	1	W

Plymouth Parkway

LWWDWWWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
11/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
08/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	7-0	–	–	W
25/04	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	6-3	–	–	W
18/04	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/04	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
06/04	Tiverton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
03/04	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	2-0	3-0	4	3	W
28/03	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Evesham United vs Plymouth Parkway?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Evesham United win (39%). Probabilities: Evesham United 39%, draw 25%, Plymouth Parkway 36%.

How many goals are expected in Evesham United vs Plymouth Parkway?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Evesham United 1.61 · Plymouth Parkway 1.56), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Evesham United vs Plymouth Parkway?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.