Football · England Southern Premier League South · 29/08, 16:00

Prediction: Poole Town vs Yate Town

Team pages: Poole Town · Yate Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.79Total

Poole Town1.63

Yate Town1.16

1X2

48% 26% 27%

Poole Town Draw Yate Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Poole Town 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWDDWLLW

Yate Town 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

WDWWWWWDDW

Head-to-head

Poole Town 3–2–1 Yate Town (6 last)

Yate Town2-2Poole Town
Poole Town2-2Yate Town
Yate Town1-2Poole Town
Yate Town2-3Poole Town
Poole Town5-0Yate Town
Poole Town0-2Yate Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Poole Town 1526 · Yate Town 1564

	Poole Town	Draw	Yate Town
Our model	47%	27%	26%
Market	48%	25%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Poole Town: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Poole Town	Yate Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	1.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	1.7 / 0.7	0 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/33/0%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.3	3.5 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0	5.5 / 1

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.60

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:53 +3’	1.85	3.60	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Poole Town 3–2–1 Yate Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/03/26 England Southern Premier League South	Yate Town	2-2 HT 2-1	Poole Town
17/01/26 England Southern Premier League South	Poole Town	2-2	Yate Town
04/10/25 England FA Trophy	Yate Town	1-2	Poole Town
11/02/23 England Southern Premier League South	Yate Town	2-3	Poole Town
24/09/22 England Southern Premier League South	Poole Town	5-0	Yate Town
02/04/22 England Southern Premier League South	Poole Town	0-2	Yate Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Chertsey Town	4	3	1	0	10	4	10
2	Uxbridge	4	3	1	0	10	5	10
3	Hanworth Villa	4	3	0	1	7	2	9
4	Bath City	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
4	Yate Town	4	2	2	0	5	3	8
6	Plymouth Parkway	4	2	1	1	12	5	7
7	Frome Town	4	2	0	2	7	3	6
8	Taunton Town	4	2	0	2	11	10	6
9	Chichester City	4	2	0	2	6	5	6
10	Poole Town	4	2	0	2	5	6	6
11	Evesham United	4	2	0	2	8	10	6
12	Hanwell Town	4	1	2	1	4	4	5
13	Wimborne Town	4	1	1	2	4	4	4
14	Basingstoke	4	1	1	2	6	7	4
15	Gloucester	4	1	1	2	4	5	4
16	Gosport Borough	4	1	1	2	3	4	4
17	Sholing	4	1	1	2	4	6	4
18	Chippenham Town	4	1	1	2	4	9	4
19	Bracknell Town	4	1	1	2	4	11	4
20	Berkhamsted	4	1	0	3	6	9	3
21	Havant and W	4	1	0	3	2	6	3
22	Malvern Town	4	0	2	2	4	10	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Poole Town	Yate Town
Gloucester	2-2 D	2-1 W
Havant and W	2-0 W	3-1 W
Chertsey Town	1-0 W	1-1 D
Evesham United	1-1 D	3-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Yate Town (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Poole Town

DLWWDDWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
29/04	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-2	5	7	D
25/04	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	2-1	3-3	2	0	D
18/04	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/04	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
06/04	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/04	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D

Yate Town

WDWWWWWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	1-1	5	5	D
11/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
25/04	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
18/04	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/04	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	0-0	2-0	5	8	W
06/04	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	3-0	–	–	W
03/04	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
28/03	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Poole Town vs Yate Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Poole Town win (48%). Probabilities: Poole Town 48%, draw 26%, Yate Town 27%.

How many goals are expected in Poole Town vs Yate Town?

The model expects 2.79 goals (Poole Town 1.63 · Yate Town 1.16), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Poole Town vs Yate Town?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.