Football · England Southern Premier League South · 11/08, 20:45
Prediction: Chertsey Town vs Berkhamsted
Team pages: Chertsey Town · Berkhamsted
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.81Total
Chertsey Town1.51
Berkhamsted1.3
1X2
Chertsey Town
Draw
Berkhamsted
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 53%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Chertsey Town
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Berkhamsted
4-0-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chertsey Town
1–2
Berkhamsted
(3 last)
- Berkhamsted1-2Chertsey Town
- Chertsey Town0-1Berkhamsted
- Chertsey Town1-2Berkhamsted
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chertsey Town 1545 · Berkhamsted 1497
| Chertsey Town | Draw | Berkhamsted | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 41% | 27% | 32% |
| Market | 42% | 26% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.81 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chertsey Town (rating 1545 vs 1497).
- H2H favours Berkhamsted: 2-0-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chertsey Town | Berkhamsted | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.3 | 1.4 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.8 | 0.6 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 38/13/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 3.8 | 1.3 / 2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.6 / 0 | 1.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chertsey Town 1–0–2 Berkhamsted
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/12/25 England Southern Premier League South | Berkhamsted | 1-2 | Chertsey Town |
| 12/08/25 England Southern Premier League South | Chertsey Town | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Berkhamsted |
| 17/10/20 England FA Trophy | Chertsey Town | 1-2 | Berkhamsted |
Standings · England Southern Premier League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth Parkway | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3 |
| 2 | Evesham United | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 |
| 3 | Berkhamsted | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Frome Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Hanworth Villa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Uxbridge | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 7 | Bath City | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Poole Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Chertsey Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 9 | Yate Town | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 11 | Hanwell Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 11 | Malvern Town | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 13 | Chichester City | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 13 | Sholing | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 15 | Gloucester | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 15 | Gosport Borough | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 17 | Basingstoke | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| 18 | Chippenham Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Havant and W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Taunton Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 18 | Wimborne Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 22 | Bracknell Town | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 0 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chertsey Town | Berkhamsted |
|---|---|---|
| Chesham | 2-1 W | 1-4 L |
| Weymouth | 1-5 L | 2-0 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chertsey Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Gloucester England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/07 | Westfield UK Friendlies |
2-2 | 4-2 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 28/07 | Chesham UK Friendlies |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 25/07 | Hampton & Richmond UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-1 | 1 | 2 | D |
| 21/07 | Wealdstone UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Hungerford Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Weymouth England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-5 | – | – | L |
| 11/04 | Poole Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 06/04 | Walton & Hersham England Southern Premier League South |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 03/04 | Yate Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
Berkhamsted
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08 | Havant and W England Southern Premier League South |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 01/08 | Cheshunt Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 28/07 | Hertford Town Club Friendly List |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/07 | St Albans Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 0-4 | – | – | L |
| 18/07 | Real Bedford Club Friendly List |
1-4 | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Chesham Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 1-4 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Bedford Town UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-2 | 0 | 0 | L |
| 07/07 | Ware UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-1 | 0 | 0 | W |
| 29/04 | Farnham England Southern Premier League South |
0-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Weymouth England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chertsey Town vs Berkhamsted?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chertsey Town win (41%). Probabilities: Chertsey Town 41%, draw 26%, Berkhamsted 32%.
How many goals are expected in Chertsey Town vs Berkhamsted?
The model expects 2.81 goals (Chertsey Town 1.51 · Berkhamsted 1.3), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Chertsey Town vs Berkhamsted?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.