Football · England Southern Premier League South · 22/08, 16:00
Prediction: Basingstoke vs Bath City
Team pages: Basingstoke · Bath City
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.39Total
Basingstoke1.57
Bath City1.82
1X2
Basingstoke
Draw
Bath City
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Basingstoke
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Bath City
4-1-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Basingstoke
2–1–2
Bath City
(5 last)
- Bath City2-0Basingstoke
- Bath City0-0Basingstoke
- Basingstoke1-2Bath City
- Basingstoke3-2Bath City
- Bath City0-4Basingstoke
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Basingstoke 1515 · Bath City 1487
| Basingstoke | Draw | Bath City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 24% | 43% |
| Market | 33% | 25% | 43% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.39 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Basingstoke | Bath City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.9 | 1.4 / 1.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.2 / 1.2 | 0.9 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 38/0/63% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.7 / 5.3 | 1 / 4.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.3 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Basingstoke 2–1–2 Bath City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/11/16 England FA Trophy | Bath City | 2-0 | Basingstoke |
| 03/10/15 England National League South | Bath City | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Basingstoke |
| 11/08/15 England National League South | Basingstoke | 1-2 HT 1-2 | Bath City |
| 03/03/15 England National League South | Basingstoke | 3-2 HT 2-0 | Bath City |
| 12/08/14 England National League South | Bath City | 0-4 HT 0-4 | Basingstoke |
Standings · England Southern Premier League South
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chertsey Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 2 | Uxbridge | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 7 |
| 3 | Bath City | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Frome Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Taunton Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Hanworth Villa | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 7 | Evesham United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 6 |
| 8 | Hanwell Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 5 |
| 9 | Yate Town | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 5 |
| 10 | Plymouth Parkway | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 4 |
| 11 | Sholing | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 |
| 12 | Chippenham Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 4 |
| 13 | Bracknell Town | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 4 |
| 14 | Basingstoke | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 6 | 3 |
| 15 | Berkhamsted | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 3 |
| 16 | Poole Town | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 17 | Chichester City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 3 |
| 18 | Havant and W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 |
| 19 | Malvern Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 2 |
| 20 | Gloucester | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 1 |
| 21 | Gosport Borough | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 22 | Wimborne Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Basingstoke
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Poole Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South |
1-1 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Evesham United England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 01/08 | Hampton & Richmond Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 28/07 | Binfield Club Friendly List |
2-1 | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/07 | Chesham UK Friendlies |
2-4 | 2-6 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Slough UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 4-2 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 25/04 | Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 18/04 | Tiverton Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Hungerford Town England Southern Premier League South |
– | 3-1 | – | – | W |
Bath City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South |
0-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 3 | D |
| 08/08 | Sholing England Southern Premier League South |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Farnborough UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Plymouth Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Cardiff U23 Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 25/04 | Maidstone Utd England National League South |
2-0 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 18/04 | Dorking Wanderers England National League South |
1-0 | 3-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 14/04 | AFC Totton England National League South |
1-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 11/04 | Chesham England National League South |
3-2 | 4-2 | 1 | 6 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Basingstoke vs Bath City?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bath City win (43%). Probabilities: Basingstoke 33%, draw 25%, Bath City 43%.
How many goals are expected in Basingstoke vs Bath City?
The model expects 3.39 goals (Basingstoke 1.57 · Bath City 1.82), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Basingstoke vs Bath City?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.