Football · England Southern Premier League South · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Malvern Town vs Hanwell Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.63Total

Malvern Town1.33

Hanwell Town1.3

1X2

37% 27% 36%

Malvern Town Draw Hanwell Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Malvern Town 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Hanwell Town 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malvern Town 1529 · Hanwell Town 1471

	Malvern Town	Draw	Hanwell Town
Our model	36%	29%	35%
Market	38%	26%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.63 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Malvern Town (rating 1529 vs 1471).
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malvern Town	Hanwell Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	1 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	57/14/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 6.6	2.1 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.2	2.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.40

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 22:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.38 → 2.40▲	Bet365 2.40
X	3.50 → 3.40▼	Bet365 3.40
2	2.45 → 2.50▲	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
17:08 +42’	2.38	3.50	2.45
22:13 +3’	2.40▲	3.40▼	2.50▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Basingstoke	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bath City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Berkhamsted	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bracknell Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chertsey Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chichester City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Chippenham Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Evesham United	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Frome Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gloucester	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gosport Borough	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hanwell Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hanworth Villa	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Havant and W	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Malvern Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Plymouth Parkway	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Poole Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Sholing	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Taunton Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Uxbridge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Wimborne Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Yate Town	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Malvern Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Rushall Olympic Club Friendly List	1-1	1-2	–	–	L
28/07	Bromsgrove Club Friendly List	0-2	0-3	–	–	L
25/07	Stourbridge Club Friendly List	1-0	2-1	–	–	W
10/07	Worcester City UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	3	0	D
04/05	Shaftesbury England Southern League Div One	1-2	3-2	6	7	W
29/04	Bishops Cleeve England Southern League Div One	0-0	1-1	10	4	D
25/03	Willand Rovers England Southern League Div One	0-0	1-0	7	5	W
18/11	Brixham England Southern League Div One	2-0	4-1	7	3	W
04/10	AFC Rushden & Diamonds England FA Trophy	–	1-3	–	–	L
20/09	Lincoln Utd England FA Trophy	–	2-0	–	–	W

Hanwell Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Aldershot UK Friendlies	0-1	0-2	5	2	L
25/04	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
18/04	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
16/04	Farnham England Southern Premier League South	1-0	1-1	6	5	D
11/04	Weymouth England Southern Premier League South	1-0	4-0	6	2	W
06/04	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	0-1	0-2	7	5	L
03/04	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	1-0	1-2	3	1	L
31/03	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
28/03	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
24/03	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-0	2	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malvern Town vs Hanwell Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Malvern Town win (37%). Probabilities: Malvern Town 37%, draw 27%, Hanwell Town 36%.

How many goals are expected in Malvern Town vs Hanwell Town?

The model expects 2.63 goals (Malvern Town 1.33 · Hanwell Town 1.3), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Malvern Town vs Hanwell Town?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.