Football · England Northern Premier League · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Alfreton Town vs Warrington Town

Team pages: Alfreton Town · Warrington Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.94Total

Alfreton Town1.61

Warrington Town1.33

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Alfreton Town Draw Warrington Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Alfreton Town 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWLWLD

Warrington Town 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

DWWLDWLDDW

Head-to-head

Alfreton Town 1–3–0 Warrington Town (4 last)

Alfreton Town2-2Warrington Town
Warrington Town0-1Alfreton Town
Warrington Town2-2Alfreton Town
Alfreton Town1-1Warrington Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alfreton Town 1493 · Warrington Town 1527

	Alfreton Town	Draw	Warrington Town
Our model	43%	27%	30%
Market	44%	25%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.94 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alfreton Town	Warrington Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.2	1.8 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/38/13%	29/29/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 4.4	2.6 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	2.9 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.60

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.88

2 (+0.25)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
10:13 +1’	2.05	3.60	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alfreton Town 1–3–0 Warrington Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/03/25 England National League North	Alfreton Town	2-2 HT 1-0	Warrington Town
09/11/24 England National League North	Warrington Town	0-1 HT 0-0	Alfreton Town
13/01/24 England National League North	Warrington Town	2-2 HT 0-1	Alfreton Town
07/10/23 England National League North	Alfreton Town	1-1 HT 1-1	Warrington Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	14	9	4	1	31	12	31
2	Cleethorpes Town	13	9	3	1	30	7	30
3	Guiseley	12	8	1	3	25	11	25
4	Avro FC	12	8	1	3	34	23	25
5	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
6	Gainsborough	12	7	1	4	25	16	22
7	Curzon Ashton	12	7	1	4	24	16	22
8	Warrington Town	12	6	4	2	23	18	22
9	Workington	14	6	3	5	24	24	21
10	Lancaster City	14	6	2	6	19	26	20
11	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
12	Alfreton Town	14	6	1	7	20	16	19
13	Whitby	13	5	1	7	19	33	16
14	Hyde Utd	14	4	3	7	15	25	15
15	Ashton Utd	12	3	5	4	14	13	14
16	Quorn	13	3	5	5	23	29	14
17	Stockton Town	14	3	3	8	17	25	12
18	Leek Town	12	2	5	5	24	25	11
19	Emley AFC	13	2	5	6	12	25	11
20	Bamber Bridge	13	2	4	7	16	32	10
21	FC United of Manchester	12	1	4	7	15	23	7
22	Ilkeston	14	2	1	11	8	34	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alfreton Town	Warrington Town
FC United of Manchester	1-0 W	1-4 L
Bamber Bridge	0-1 L	1-0 W
Whitby	4-1 W	5-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Warrington Town (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alfreton Town

LWLWLWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
10/10	Bury England Northern Premier League	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
06/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
03/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
12/09	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
31/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	4	W
29/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-2	5	6	L
25/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-0	2	5	W
22/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L

Warrington Town

DWWLDWLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
10/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-2	5	1	D
06/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
12/09	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-4	2	5	L
01/09	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
29/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
25/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
22/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	5-0	–	–	W
18/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alfreton Town vs Warrington Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alfreton Town win (43%). Probabilities: Alfreton Town 43%, draw 26%, Warrington Town 31%.

How many goals are expected in Alfreton Town vs Warrington Town?

The model expects 2.94 goals (Alfreton Town 1.61 · Warrington Town 1.33), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Alfreton Town vs Warrington Town?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.