Football · England Northern Premier League · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Lancaster City vs Leek Town

Team pages: Lancaster City · Leek Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.32Total

Lancaster City1.84

Leek Town1.48

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Lancaster City Draw Leek Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Lancaster City 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DWWLLWWLDW

Leek Town 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDLLLWDD

Head-to-head

Lancaster City 2–2 Leek Town (4 last)

Lancaster City2-1Leek Town
Leek Town0-1Lancaster City
Leek Town2-1Lancaster City
Lancaster City0-1Leek Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lancaster City 1514 · Leek Town 1501

	Lancaster City	Draw	Leek Town
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.32 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lancaster City	Leek Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.7	2.2 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/57/14%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5	1.8 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
09:57 +16’	2.00	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lancaster City 2–0–2 Leek Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	2-1 HT 2-2	Leek Town
11/10/25 England Northern Premier League	Leek Town	0-1	Lancaster City
18/01/25 England Northern Premier League	Leek Town	2-1 HT 2-0	Lancaster City
01/10/24 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	0-1 HT 0-0	Leek Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	14	9	4	1	31	12	31
2	Cleethorpes Town	13	9	3	1	30	7	30
3	Guiseley	12	8	1	3	25	11	25
4	Avro FC	12	8	1	3	34	23	25
5	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
6	Gainsborough	12	7	1	4	25	16	22
7	Curzon Ashton	12	7	1	4	24	16	22
8	Warrington Town	12	6	4	2	23	18	22
9	Workington	14	6	3	5	24	24	21
10	Lancaster City	14	6	2	6	19	26	20
11	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
12	Alfreton Town	14	6	1	7	20	16	19
13	Whitby	13	5	1	7	19	33	16
14	Hyde Utd	14	4	3	7	15	25	15
15	Ashton Utd	12	3	5	4	14	13	14
16	Quorn	13	3	5	5	23	29	14
17	Stockton Town	14	3	3	8	17	25	12
18	Leek Town	12	2	5	5	24	25	11
19	Emley AFC	13	2	5	6	12	25	11
20	Bamber Bridge	13	2	4	7	16	32	10
21	FC United of Manchester	12	1	4	7	15	23	7
22	Ilkeston	14	2	1	11	8	34	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lancaster City	Leek Town
Stockton Town	1-0 W	1-1 D
Warrington Town	2-2 D	1-2 L
Avro FC	3-5 L	4-4 D
Workington	0-3 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lancaster City

DWWLLWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
10/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	1	D
07/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	2-2	3-5	3	1	L
03/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/09	Whitby England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	4	W
12/09	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	8	0	L
31/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
28/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
25/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
22/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D

Leek Town

DLWDLLLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	3-1	3-3	4	2	D
22/09	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
12/09	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-3	0	5	L
01/09	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
29/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-3	3	2	L
26/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	2-2	4-4	3	0	D
22/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
18/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lancaster City vs Leek Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lancaster City win (45%). Probabilities: Lancaster City 45%, draw 25%, Leek Town 30%.

How many goals are expected in Lancaster City vs Leek Town?

The model expects 3.32 goals (Lancaster City 1.84 · Leek Town 1.48), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lancaster City vs Leek Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.