Football · England Northern Premier League · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Ilkeston vs Avro FC

Team pages: Ilkeston · Avro FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Ilkeston1.34

Avro FC2.16

1X2

22% 22% 55%

Ilkeston Draw Avro FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Ilkeston 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLLLLL

Avro FC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWDWWWWLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ilkeston 1361 · Avro FC 1543

	Ilkeston	Draw	Avro FC
Our model	22%	22%	55%
Market	22%	22%	55%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Avro FC (rating 1361 vs 1543).
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ilkeston	Avro FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 2.9	2.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.2	1.1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	14/71/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.7 / 3	1.4 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.00

X4.00

21.61

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.75)2.00

2 (-0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 1 · xG: 4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:10 +15’	4.00	4.00	1.61

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	14	9	4	1	31	12	31
2	Cleethorpes Town	13	9	3	1	30	7	30
3	Guiseley	12	8	1	3	25	11	25
4	Avro FC	12	8	1	3	34	23	25
5	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
6	Gainsborough	12	7	1	4	25	16	22
7	Curzon Ashton	12	7	1	4	24	16	22
8	Warrington Town	12	6	4	2	23	18	22
9	Workington	14	6	3	5	24	24	21
10	Lancaster City	14	6	2	6	19	26	20
11	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
12	Alfreton Town	14	6	1	7	20	16	19
13	Whitby	13	5	1	7	19	33	16
14	Hyde Utd	14	4	3	7	15	25	15
15	Ashton Utd	12	3	5	4	14	13	14
16	Quorn	13	3	5	5	23	29	14
17	Stockton Town	14	3	3	8	17	25	12
18	Leek Town	12	2	5	5	24	25	11
19	Emley AFC	13	2	5	6	12	25	11
20	Bamber Bridge	13	2	4	7	16	32	10
21	FC United of Manchester	12	1	4	7	15	23	7
22	Ilkeston	14	2	1	11	8	34	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ilkeston	Avro FC
Gainsborough	1-3 L	2-0 W
Redcar Athletic	0-5 L	1-3 L
Guiseley	0-2 L	0-1 L
Lancaster City	1-2 L	5-3 W
Workington	1-3 L	4-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Avro FC (5 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ilkeston

LDLLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
10/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	0-5	–	–	L
06/10	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
03/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/09	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/09	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
31/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
29/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-4	0-7	0	3	L
25/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
22/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L

Avro FC

LWWDWWWWLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-3	2	3	L
10/10	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	2-2	5-3	4	1	W
12/09	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
31/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-1	4-3	8	2	W
29/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	3-1	5-3	6	2	W
26/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	2-2	4-4	6	0	D
22/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
19/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ilkeston vs Avro FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Avro FC win (55%). Probabilities: Ilkeston 22%, draw 22%, Avro FC 55%.

How many goals are expected in Ilkeston vs Avro FC?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Ilkeston 1.34 · Avro FC 2.16), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Ilkeston vs Avro FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.