Football · England Northern Premier League · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Stockton Town vs Emley AFC

Team pages: Stockton Town · Emley AFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Stockton Town1.88

Emley AFC1.14

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Stockton Town Draw Emley AFC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Stockton Town 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Emley AFC 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stockton Town 1461 · Emley AFC 1418

	Stockton Town	Draw	Emley AFC
Our model	54%	25%	22%
Market	54%	24%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stockton Town (rating 1461 vs 1418).
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stockton Town	Emley AFC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.8	0.9 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.2	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	29/29/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 5.8	2.4 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.2 / 0.2	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.65

X3.80

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.85

2 (+0.75)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
10:34 +44’	1.65	3.80	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	14	9	4	1	31	12	31
2	Cleethorpes Town	13	9	3	1	30	7	30
3	Guiseley	12	8	1	3	25	11	25
4	Avro FC	12	8	1	3	34	23	25
5	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
6	Gainsborough	12	7	1	4	25	16	22
7	Curzon Ashton	12	7	1	4	24	16	22
8	Warrington Town	12	6	4	2	23	18	22
9	Workington	14	6	3	5	24	24	21
10	Lancaster City	14	6	2	6	19	26	20
11	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
12	Alfreton Town	14	6	1	7	20	16	19
13	Whitby	13	5	1	7	19	33	16
14	Hyde Utd	14	4	3	7	15	25	15
15	Ashton Utd	12	3	5	4	14	13	14
16	Quorn	13	3	5	5	23	29	14
17	Stockton Town	14	3	3	8	17	25	12
18	Leek Town	12	2	5	5	24	25	11
19	Emley AFC	13	2	5	6	12	25	11
20	Bamber Bridge	13	2	4	7	16	32	10
21	FC United of Manchester	12	1	4	7	15	23	7
22	Ilkeston	14	2	1	11	8	34	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stockton Town	Emley AFC
FC United of Manchester	2-2 D	1-1 D
Bury	1-0 W	0-4 L
Warrington Rylands	1-1 D	1-4 L
Redcar Athletic	0-2 L	0-0 D
Guiseley	0-3 L	0-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Stockton Town (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stockton Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
10/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Bury England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
19/09	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	5-2	–	–	W
12/09	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
31/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-3	3-5	2	2	L
25/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-3	8	1	L
22/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W

Emley AFC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	0	D
10/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-4	4	2	L
29/09	Workington England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-3	6	4	L
12/09	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-3	0-4	3	1	L
31/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-4	4	5	L
29/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	10	3	D
25/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
22/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stockton Town vs Emley AFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Stockton Town win (54%). Probabilities: Stockton Town 54%, draw 24%, Emley AFC 22%.

How many goals are expected in Stockton Town vs Emley AFC?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Stockton Town 1.88 · Emley AFC 1.14), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Stockton Town vs Emley AFC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.