Football · England Northern Premier League · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Whitby vs Curzon Ashton

Team pages: Whitby · Curzon Ashton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.94Total

Whitby1.64

Curzon Ashton2.3

1X2

26% 23% 51%

Whitby Draw Curzon Ashton

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-2 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Whitby 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLWLWLLDW

Curzon Ashton 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWWWWL

Head-to-head

Whitby 0–2 Curzon Ashton (2 last)

Curzon Ashton3-0Whitby
Whitby0-1Curzon Ashton

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Whitby 1440 · Curzon Ashton 1545

	Whitby	Draw	Curzon Ashton
Our model	27%	21%	52%
Market	25%	25%	50%

Estimated total (ours) 3.94 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.9

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Curzon Ashton (rating 1440 vs 1545).
H2H favours Curzon Ashton: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Whitby	Curzon Ashton
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 3	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.7	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/33/67%	57/29/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.7	1.6 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.2	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.60

21.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
10:10 +4’	3.60	3.60	1.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Whitby 0–0–2 Curzon Ashton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
09/03/15 England Northern League Challenge Cup	Curzon Ashton	3-0	Whitby
20/08/14 England Northern League Challenge Cup	Whitby	0-1	Curzon Ashton

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	14	9	4	1	31	12	31
2	Cleethorpes Town	13	9	3	1	30	7	30
3	Guiseley	12	8	1	3	25	11	25
4	Avro FC	12	8	1	3	34	23	25
5	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
6	Gainsborough	12	7	1	4	25	16	22
7	Curzon Ashton	12	7	1	4	24	16	22
8	Warrington Town	12	6	4	2	23	18	22
9	Workington	14	6	3	5	24	24	21
10	Lancaster City	14	6	2	6	19	26	20
11	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
12	Alfreton Town	14	6	1	7	20	16	19
13	Whitby	13	5	1	7	19	33	16
14	Hyde Utd	14	4	3	7	15	25	15
15	Ashton Utd	12	3	5	4	14	13	14
16	Quorn	13	3	5	5	23	29	14
17	Stockton Town	14	3	3	8	17	25	12
18	Leek Town	12	2	5	5	24	25	11
19	Emley AFC	13	2	5	6	12	25	11
20	Bamber Bridge	13	2	4	7	16	32	10
21	FC United of Manchester	12	1	4	7	15	23	7
22	Ilkeston	14	2	1	11	8	34	7

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Whitby	Curzon Ashton
Bamber Bridge	0-0 D	2-2 D
Lancaster City	1-2 L	2-0 W
Hyde Utd	3-1 W	2-0 W
Cleethorpes Town	0-6 L	3-1 W
Warrington Town	0-5 L	4-0 W
Ashton Utd	0-2 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 4 L	5 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Curzon Ashton (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Whitby

LLLWLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
06/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-3	2-6	3	0	L
29/09	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
12/09	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	3-1	2	1	W
31/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-4	1	4	L
29/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	6-3	–	–	W
25/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-3	0-6	2	2	L
22/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-5	–	–	L
18/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L

Curzon Ashton

LDLWWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
10/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
06/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	3-0	3-1	2	2	W
12/09	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	3	0	W
31/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
28/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-1	1	2	W
25/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-0	2	3	W
22/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
14/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Whitby vs Curzon Ashton?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Curzon Ashton win (51%). Probabilities: Whitby 26%, draw 23%, Curzon Ashton 51%.

How many goals are expected in Whitby vs Curzon Ashton?

The model expects 3.94 goals (Whitby 1.64 · Curzon Ashton 2.3), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Whitby vs Curzon Ashton?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.