Football · England Northern Premier League · 13/10, 20:45

Prediction: Ashton Utd vs Alfreton Town

Team pages: Ashton Utd · Alfreton Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.61Total

Ashton Utd1.25

Alfreton Town1.36

1X2

34% 27% 39%

Ashton Utd Draw Alfreton Town

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ashton Utd 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Alfreton Town 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Ashton Utd 0–2 Alfreton Town (2 last)

Alfreton Town2-0Ashton Utd
Ashton Utd0-2Alfreton Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ashton Utd 1488 · Alfreton Town 1494

	Ashton Utd	Draw	Alfreton Town
Our model	33%	29%	38%
Market	35%	26%	40%

Estimated total (ours) 2.61 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Alfreton Town: 2-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ashton Utd	Alfreton Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 1.2	1.5 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	2.4 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0	4.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.60

X3.50

22.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.75

2 (-0.25)2.05

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 2.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.60 → 2.60	Bet365 2.60
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +7’	2.60	3.50	2.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Ashton Utd 0–0–2 Alfreton Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/03/19 England National League North	Alfreton Town	2-0 HT 0-0	Ashton Utd
04/12/18 England National League North	Ashton Utd	0-2 HT 0-0	Alfreton Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	13	9	3	1	30	7	30
2	Redcar Athletic	13	8	4	1	28	11	28
3	Guiseley	12	8	1	3	25	11	25
4	Avro FC	11	8	1	2	33	20	25
5	Curzon Ashton	11	7	1	3	23	11	22
6	Workington	13	6	3	4	23	22	21
7	Warrington Rylands	13	6	2	5	20	20	20
8	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
9	Gainsborough	11	6	1	4	22	15	19
10	Warrington Town	11	5	4	2	22	18	19
11	Alfreton Town	13	6	0	7	20	16	18
12	Lancaster City	13	5	2	6	18	26	17
13	Hyde Utd	13	4	2	7	13	23	14
14	Ashton Utd	11	3	4	4	14	13	13
15	Quorn	12	3	4	5	21	27	13
16	Whitby	12	4	1	7	17	32	13
17	Stockton Town	13	3	3	7	17	24	12
18	Leek Town	12	2	5	5	24	25	11
19	Emley AFC	12	2	4	6	11	24	10
20	Bamber Bridge	12	2	4	6	16	31	10
21	Ilkeston	13	2	1	10	7	31	7
22	FC United of Manchester	11	1	3	7	14	22	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ashton Utd	Alfreton Town
Cleethorpes Town	0-1 L	1-2 L
Whitby	2-0 W	4-1 W
Bamber Bridge	0-1 L	0-1 L
Stockton Town	1-0 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ashton Utd

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-2	2	6	D
12/09	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
31/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
28/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-2	10	6	L
25/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
22/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
15/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W

Alfreton Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Bury England Northern Premier League	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
06/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
03/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
12/09	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
31/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	4	W
29/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-2	5	6	L
25/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-0	2	5	W
22/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
18/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ashton Utd vs Alfreton Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Alfreton Town win (39%). Probabilities: Ashton Utd 34%, draw 27%, Alfreton Town 39%.

How many goals are expected in Ashton Utd vs Alfreton Town?

The model expects 2.61 goals (Ashton Utd 1.25 · Alfreton Town 1.36), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ashton Utd vs Alfreton Town?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.