Football · England Northern Premier League · 13/10, 20:45

Prediction: FC United of Manchester vs Emley AFC

Team pages: FC United of Manchester · Emley AFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

FC United of Manchester1.91

Emley AFC1.24

1X2

52% 24% 24%

FC United of Manchester Draw Emley AFC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

FC United of Manchester 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Emley AFC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC United of Manchester 1489 · Emley AFC 1420

	FC United of Manchester	Draw	Emley AFC
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	52%	23%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC United of Manchester (rating 1489 vs 1420).
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC United of Manchester	Emley AFC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.2	0.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	17/33/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0	2.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.70

X3.80

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.98

2 (+0.75)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.70 → 1.70	Bet365 1.70
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
12:53 +11’	1.70	3.80	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	13	9	3	1	30	7	30
2	Redcar Athletic	13	8	4	1	28	11	28
3	Guiseley	12	8	1	3	25	11	25
4	Avro FC	11	8	1	2	33	20	25
5	Curzon Ashton	11	7	1	3	23	11	22
6	Workington	13	6	3	4	23	22	21
7	Warrington Rylands	13	6	2	5	20	20	20
8	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
9	Gainsborough	11	6	1	4	22	15	19
10	Warrington Town	11	5	4	2	22	18	19
11	Alfreton Town	13	6	0	7	20	16	18
12	Lancaster City	13	5	2	6	18	26	17
13	Hyde Utd	13	4	2	7	13	23	14
14	Ashton Utd	11	3	4	4	14	13	13
15	Quorn	12	3	4	5	21	27	13
16	Whitby	12	4	1	7	17	32	13
17	Stockton Town	13	3	3	7	17	24	12
18	Leek Town	12	2	5	5	24	25	11
19	Emley AFC	12	2	4	6	11	24	10
20	Bamber Bridge	12	2	4	6	16	31	10
21	Ilkeston	13	2	1	10	7	31	7
22	FC United of Manchester	11	1	3	7	14	22	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC United of Manchester	Emley AFC
Warrington Town	4-1 W	2-2 D
Redcar Athletic	2-3 L	0-0 D
Workington	1-2 L	1-3 L
Gainsborough	0-3 L	1-2 L
Leek Town	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Emley AFC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC United of Manchester

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
12/09	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
31/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-1	3-4	4	2	L
29/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
22/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	6	1	L
18/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
11/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D

Emley AFC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-4	4	2	L
29/09	Workington England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-3	6	4	L
12/09	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-3	0-4	3	1	L
31/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-4	4	5	L
29/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	10	3	D
25/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
22/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
14/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC United of Manchester vs Emley AFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC United of Manchester win (52%). Probabilities: FC United of Manchester 52%, draw 24%, Emley AFC 24%.

How many goals are expected in FC United of Manchester vs Emley AFC?

The model expects 3.15 goals (FC United of Manchester 1.91 · Emley AFC 1.24), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC United of Manchester vs Emley AFC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.