Prediction: Alfreton Town vs Bury
Team pages: Alfreton Town · Bury
| Alfreton Town | Draw | Bury | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 27% | 45% |
| Market | 30% | 24% | 46% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bury (rating 1503 vs 1548).
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Alfreton Town | Bury | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.6 / 1.1 | 1.9 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.1 | 1.6 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 57/29/14% | 40/40/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.1 / 4 | 3.4 / 8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4 / 0.3 | 2 / 0.2 |
Standings · England Northern Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redcar Athletic | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 22 | 8 | 25 |
| 2 | Cleethorpes Town | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 26 | 7 | 24 |
| 3 | Avro FC | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 16 | 22 |
| 4 | Workington | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 17 | 20 |
| 5 | Guiseley | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 22 | 11 | 19 |
| 6 | Warrington Rylands | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 17 | 14 | 19 |
| 7 | Warrington Town | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 14 | 17 |
| 8 | Bury | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 8 | 16 |
| 9 | Curzon Ashton | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 18 | 10 | 16 |
| 10 | Lancaster City | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 19 | 16 |
| 11 | Alfreton Town | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 17 | 13 | 15 |
| 12 | Hyde Utd | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 13 | 20 | 14 |
| 13 | Gainsborough | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | Whitby | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 15 | 26 | 12 |
| 15 | Ashton Utd | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 11 |
| 16 | Emley AFC | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 10 | 22 | 10 |
| 17 | Leek Town | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 20 | 9 |
| 18 | Quorn | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 16 | 25 | 9 |
| 19 | Bamber Bridge | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 16 | 31 | 9 |
| 20 | Stockton Town | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 14 | 22 | 8 |
| 21 | Ilkeston | 11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 24 | 7 |
| 22 | FC United of Manchester | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 19 | 5 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Alfreton Town | Bury |
|---|---|---|
| Redcar Athletic | 1-3 L | 0-0 D |
| Guiseley | 1-0 W | 2-3 L |
| Warrington Rylands | 1-2 L | 1-0 W |
| Hyde Utd | 4-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Stockton Town | 0-2 L | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 3 L | 1 W 1 D 3 L |
Better against common opponents: Bury (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Alfreton Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
| 03/10 | Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 29/09 | Guiseley England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 12/09 | Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 1 | L |
| 31/08 | Whitby England Northern Premier League |
2-0 | 4-1 | 6 | 4 | W |
| 29/08 | Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 25/08 | Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League |
2-0 | 4-0 | 2 | 5 | W |
| 22/08 | Stockton Town England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 18/08 | Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Avro FC England Northern Premier League |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
Bury
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/10 | Stockton Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 12/09 | Emley AFC England Northern Premier League |
3-0 | 4-0 | 7 | 1 | W |
| 31/08 | Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League |
1-1 | 1-2 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 29/08 | Ilkeston England Northern Premier League |
4-0 | 7-0 | 10 | 3 | W |
| 25/08 | Lancaster City England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 0-1 | 10 | 3 | L |
| 22/08 | Gainsborough England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 18/08 | Guiseley England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 15/08 | Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 08/08 | Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League |
– | 0-0 | – | – | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Alfreton Town vs Bury?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bury win (45%). Probabilities: Alfreton Town 29%, draw 25%, Bury 45%.
How many goals are expected in Alfreton Town vs Bury?
The model expects 2.9 goals (Alfreton Town 1.27 · Bury 1.63), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Alfreton Town vs Bury?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.