Football · England Northern Premier League · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Avro FC vs Guiseley

Team pages: Avro FC · Guiseley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.53Total

Avro FC1.95

Guiseley1.58

1X2

45% 24% 30%

Avro FC Draw Guiseley

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Avro FC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

WWLWWDWWWW

Guiseley 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WDWWWLWWLW

Head-to-head

Avro FC 0–3 Guiseley (3 last)

Avro FC0-1Guiseley
Avro FC0-2Guiseley
Guiseley2-1Avro FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avro FC 1582 · Guiseley 1588

	Avro FC	Draw	Guiseley
Our model	46%	24%	31%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Guiseley: 3-0-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avro FC	Guiseley
Goals for / against (FT)	3.3 / 1.9	2.3 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.5 / 1	1.2 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/67/0%	83/0/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 5.3	3.5 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 1.45 · xG: 4.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:11 +25’	2.00	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Avro FC 0–0–3 Guiseley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/07/24 Club Friendly List	Avro FC	0-1 HT 0-1	Guiseley
31/07/23 Club Friendly List	Avro FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Guiseley
03/09/22 England FA Cup Qualification	Guiseley	2-1	Avro FC

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	12	8	3	1	27	7	27
2	Avro FC	10	8	1	1	33	19	25
3	Redcar Athletic	12	7	4	1	23	11	25
4	Guiseley	11	7	1	3	24	11	22
5	Workington	12	6	3	3	23	19	21
6	Warrington Rylands	12	6	2	4	20	17	20
7	Curzon Ashton	10	6	1	3	21	11	19
8	Alfreton Town	12	6	0	6	18	13	18
9	Warrington Town	10	5	3	2	20	16	18
10	Bury	10	5	1	4	19	9	16
11	Gainsborough	10	5	1	4	20	14	16
12	Lancaster City	12	5	1	6	16	24	16
13	Hyde Utd	12	4	2	6	13	21	14
14	Ashton Utd	10	3	3	4	12	11	12
15	Whitby	11	4	0	7	17	32	12
16	Stockton Town	12	3	2	7	15	22	11
17	Leek Town	11	2	4	5	22	23	10
18	Quorn	11	2	4	5	18	27	10
19	Emley AFC	11	2	4	5	10	22	10
20	Bamber Bridge	11	2	3	6	16	31	9
21	Ilkeston	12	2	1	9	7	26	7
22	FC United of Manchester	10	1	2	7	12	20	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avro FC	Guiseley
Lancaster City	5-3 W	1-2 L
Stockton Town	5-3 W	3-0 W
Workington	4-1 W	2-2 D
Alfreton Town	0-3 L	0-1 L
Quorn	2-1 W	4-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Guiseley (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avro FC

WWLWWDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	2-2	5-3	4	1	W
12/09	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
31/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-1	4-3	8	2	W
29/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	3-1	5-3	6	2	W
26/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	2-2	4-4	6	0	D
22/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
19/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
11/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	6-1	–	–	W
08/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W

Guiseley

WDWWWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-0	7	7	W
29/09	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
12/09	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
31/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-0	4	5	W
28/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
25/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	10	1	W
22/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-1	4	7	W
18/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W
15/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avro FC vs Guiseley?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Avro FC win (45%). Probabilities: Avro FC 45%, draw 24%, Guiseley 30%.

How many goals are expected in Avro FC vs Guiseley?

The model expects 3.53 goals (Avro FC 1.95 · Guiseley 1.58), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Avro FC vs Guiseley?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.