Football · England Northern Premier League · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Emley AFC vs Gainsborough

Team pages: Emley AFC · Gainsborough

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Emley AFC1.22

Gainsborough2.06

1X2

21% 23% 56%

Emley AFC Draw Gainsborough

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Emley AFC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Gainsborough 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Emley AFC 1422 · Gainsborough 1528

	Emley AFC	Draw	Gainsborough
Our model	21%	23%	56%
Market	21%	23%	56%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gainsborough (rating 1422 vs 1528).
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Emley AFC	Gainsborough
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.2	2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 1.3	1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/33/50%	33/67/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 4.8	2 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.20

X3.90

21.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.77

2 (-1)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:26 +9’	4.20	3.90	1.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	11	7	4	0	22	8	25
2	Cleethorpes Town	11	7	3	1	26	7	24
3	Avro FC	9	7	1	1	28	16	22
4	Workington	11	6	2	3	21	17	20
5	Guiseley	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
6	Warrington Rylands	11	6	1	4	17	14	19
7	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	17
8	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	16
9	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	16
10	Lancaster City	11	5	1	5	13	19	16
11	Alfreton Town	11	5	0	6	17	13	15
12	Hyde Utd	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
13	Gainsborough	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
14	Whitby	10	4	0	6	15	26	12
15	Ashton Utd	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
16	Emley AFC	11	2	4	5	10	22	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	19	20	9
18	Quorn	10	2	3	5	16	25	9
19	Bamber Bridge	11	2	3	6	16	31	9
20	Stockton Town	11	2	2	7	14	22	8
21	Ilkeston	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
22	FC United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Emley AFC	Gainsborough
Workington	1-3 L	2-0 W
Bury	0-4 L	0-1 L
Ashton Utd	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Gainsborough (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Emley AFC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-4	4	2	L
29/09	Workington England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-3	6	4	L
12/09	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-3	0-4	3	1	L
31/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-4	4	5	L
29/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	10	3	D
25/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
22/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
14/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
11/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L

Gainsborough

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	3-0	6-2	10	0	W
12/09	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
31/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-3	3	2	L
28/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-1	0	6	W
25/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	7	0	D
22/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
18/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
11/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Emley AFC vs Gainsborough?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gainsborough win (56%). Probabilities: Emley AFC 21%, draw 23%, Gainsborough 56%.

How many goals are expected in Emley AFC vs Gainsborough?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Emley AFC 1.22 · Gainsborough 2.06), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Emley AFC vs Gainsborough?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.