Football · England Northern Premier League · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Gainsborough vs Workington

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Gainsborough1.64

Workington1.2

1X2

47% 26% 27%

Gainsborough Draw Workington

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Gainsborough 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWDLDWL

Workington 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWLLWW

Head-to-head

Gainsborough 4–2–0 Workington (6 last)

Gainsborough3-3Workington
Workington1-2Gainsborough
Workington1-1Gainsborough
Gainsborough3-0Workington
Gainsborough4-2Workington
Workington2-3Gainsborough

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gainsborough 1501 · Workington 1518

	Gainsborough	Draw	Workington
Our model	47%	27%	27%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Gainsborough: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gainsborough	Workington
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	1 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	22/56/22%	29/14/57%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6	2.2 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	0.8 / 0	4.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.88

Under 2.51.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 21:17

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.30 → 3.40▲	Pinn 3.43 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 10.6% Pinnacle margin 10.7%

Time*	1	X	2
20:01 +4’	1.90	3.50	3.30
21:15 +2’	1.90	3.50	3.40▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:05 +1’	1.90	3.46	3.43

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gainsborough 4–2–0 Workington

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	3-3 HT 0-2	Workington
21/10/25 England Northern Premier League	Workington	1-2 HT 0-2	Gainsborough
15/03/25 England Northern Premier League	Workington	1-1	Gainsborough
09/11/24 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	3-0 HT 1-0	Workington
23/03/24 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	4-2 HT 3-0	Workington
21/10/23 England Northern Premier League	Workington	2-3	Gainsborough

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Emley AFC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alfreton Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ashton Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Avro FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bamber Bridge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bury	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cleethorpes Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Curzon Ashton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC United of Manchester	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gainsborough	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guiseley	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hyde Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ilkeston	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lancaster City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leek Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Quorn	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Redcar Athletic	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stockton Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Warrington Rylands	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Warrington Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Whitby	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Workington	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Gainsborough

LLLWWDLDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Bradford P A UK Friendlies	0-0	0-2	5	0	L
28/07	Stocksbridge PS Club Friendly List	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	Doncaster Club Friendly List	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
21/07	Halifax UK Friendlies	0-1	2-3	1	0	L
18/07	Basford Utd Club Friendly List	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
14/07	Lincoln Utd Club Friendly List	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
11/07	Frickley Club Friendly List	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
25/04	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-3	1-3	7	1	L
18/04	Prescot Cables England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	11	2	L
11/04	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L

Workington

WWLDLWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Carlisle Club Friendly List	4-0	5-0	–	–	W
14/07	Whitehaven Club Friendly List	3-0	4-0	–	–	W
11/07	Barrow UK Friendlies	0-2	0-2	1	1	L
25/04	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-2	3-2	5	9	W
11/04	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
06/04	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	9	8	D
04/04	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-3	0-3	4	1	L
28/03	Hednesford England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
21/03	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gainsborough vs Workington?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gainsborough win (47%). Probabilities: Gainsborough 47%, draw 26%, Workington 27%.

How many goals are expected in Gainsborough vs Workington?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Gainsborough 1.64 · Workington 1.2), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Gainsborough vs Workington?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.