Football · England Northern Premier League · 15/08, 16:00
Prediction: Stockton Town vs Leek Town
Team pages: Stockton Town · Leek Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.02Total
Stockton Town1.18
Leek Town0.84
1X2
Stockton Town
Draw
Leek Town
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 59%
Not both to score 52%
Most likely score
0-0
Recent form · 10 last
Stockton Town
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Leek Town
3-6-1 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Stockton Town
2–1–1
Leek Town
(4 last)
- Leek Town0-0Stockton Town
- Stockton Town1-2Leek Town
- Stockton Town1-0Leek Town
- Leek Town0-2Stockton Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Stockton Town 1435 · Leek Town 1533
| Stockton Town | Draw | Leek Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 33% | 25% |
| Market | 46% | 26% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.02 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · -0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 63%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leek Town (rating 1435 vs 1533).
- H2H favours Stockton Town: 2-1-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Stockton Town | Leek Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1.7 | 1.1 / 0.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.9 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 0/50/50% | 44/56/0% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.2 | 1.5 / 3.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2.4 / 0.4 | 1.5 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Stockton Town 2–1–1 Leek Town
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/26 England Northern Premier League | Leek Town | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Stockton Town |
| 02/12/25 England Northern Premier League | Stockton Town | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Leek Town |
| 29/01/25 England Northern Premier League | Stockton Town | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Leek Town |
| 10/08/24 England Northern Premier League | Leek Town | 0-2 | Stockton Town |
Standings · England Northern Premier League
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 6 |
| 2 | Avro FC | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| 3 | Ashton Utd | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 3 | Warrington Town | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Ilkeston | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Bury | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| 7 | Redcar Athletic | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 8 | Warrington Rylands | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | Gainsborough | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Guiseley | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | Curzon Ashton | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| 12 | Alfreton Town | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 13 | Whitby | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 3 |
| 14 | Lancaster City | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 |
| 15 | Leek Town | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 16 | Emley AFC | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 |
| 17 | FC United of Manchester | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 |
| 18 | Hyde Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 20 | Workington | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 21 | Quorn | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| 22 | Bamber Bridge | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Stockton Town
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Ilkeston England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 25/07 | Blyth Spartans Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Darlington 1883 UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Dunston UTS Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | Guisborough Town Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/04 | Hednesford England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/04 | FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 18/04 | Lancaster City England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
Leek Town
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08 | FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 08/08 | Whitby England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 31/07 | Runcorn Linnets UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 25/07 | Stalybridge UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 21/07 | Kidsgrove Ath UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Stafford Rangers Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 14/07 | Macclesfield UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 09/07 | Abbey Hulton United Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Winsford United Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 25/04 | Workington England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Stockton Town vs Leek Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Stockton Town win (44%). Probabilities: Stockton Town 44%, draw 29%, Leek Town 26%.
How many goals are expected in Stockton Town vs Leek Town?
The model expects 2.02 goals (Stockton Town 1.18 · Leek Town 0.84), with a 59% chance of under 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Stockton Town vs Leek Town?
The model gives a 52% chance that not both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 0-0.