Football · England Northern Premier League · 15/08, 16:00

Prediction: FC United of Manchester vs Gainsborough

Team pages: FC United of Manchester · Gainsborough

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.55Total

FC United of Manchester1.42

Gainsborough1.13

1X2

43% 27% 29%

FC United of Manchester Draw Gainsborough

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC United of Manchester 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLWWLWLLLD

Gainsborough 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDLDWLWL

Head-to-head

FC United of Manchester 4–2–0 Gainsborough (6 last)

FC United of Manchester1-1Gainsborough
Gainsborough0-1FC United of Manchester
Gainsborough0-1FC United of Manchester
FC United of Manchester1-1Gainsborough
FC United of Manchester2-0Gainsborough
Gainsborough1-3FC United of Manchester

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC United of Manchester 1474 · Gainsborough 1494

	FC United of Manchester	Draw	Gainsborough
Our model	43%	29%	29%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.55 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC United of Manchester: 4-2-0.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC United of Manchester	Gainsborough
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.7	1.6 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/11/44%	22/44/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.1	1.3 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0	1.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
18:01 +7’	2.05	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · FC United of Manchester 4–2–0 Gainsborough

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/02/26 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	1-1 HT 0-1	Gainsborough
18/10/25 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	0-1 HT 0-1	FC United of Manchester
22/03/25 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	0-1 HT 0-0	FC United of Manchester
14/01/25 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	1-1 HT 0-1	Gainsborough
03/02/24 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	2-0	Gainsborough
02/12/23 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	1-3	FC United of Manchester

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	2	2	0	0	7	0	6
2	Avro FC	2	2	0	0	8	2	6
3	Ashton Utd	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
3	Warrington Town	2	2	0	0	5	1	6
5	Ilkeston	2	2	0	0	3	1	6
6	Bury	2	1	1	0	3	2	4
7	Redcar Athletic	2	1	1	0	1	0	4
8	Warrington Rylands	2	1	0	1	3	1	3
9	Gainsborough	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
9	Guiseley	2	1	0	1	3	2	3
11	Curzon Ashton	2	1	0	1	3	3	3
12	Alfreton Town	2	1	0	1	2	2	3
13	Whitby	2	1	0	1	2	3	3
14	Lancaster City	2	1	0	1	2	4	3
15	Leek Town	2	0	1	1	2	3	1
16	Emley AFC	2	0	1	1	1	2	1
17	FC United of Manchester	2	0	1	1	1	4	1
18	Hyde Utd	2	0	1	1	0	3	1
19	Stockton Town	2	0	0	2	0	2	0
20	Workington	2	0	0	2	0	3	0
21	Quorn	2	0	0	2	1	7	0
22	Bamber Bridge	2	0	0	2	1	8	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC United of Manchester

LLWWLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
08/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
01/08	Macclesfield UK Friendlies	0-1	0-2	6	0	L
24/07	Southport UK Friendlies	0-1	0-2	4	0	L
20/07	Trafford Club Friendly List	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
18/07	Salford City UK Friendlies	0-1	1-4	1	1	L
14/07	Rochdale UK Friendlies	1-0	2-0	4	1	W
11/07	Runcorn Linnets UK Friendlies	2-0	4-0	1	0	W
04/07	Bradford UK Friendlies	0-0	1-2	5	0	L
28/04	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-3	6	2	L

Gainsborough

LWWDLDWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
08/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
01/08	Bradford P A UK Friendlies	0-0	0-2	5	0	L
28/07	Stocksbridge PS Club Friendly List	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
25/07	Doncaster Club Friendly List	0-0	0-0	–	–	D
21/07	Halifax UK Friendlies	0-1	2-3	1	0	L
18/07	Basford Utd Club Friendly List	1-1	1-1	–	–	D
14/07	Lincoln Utd Club Friendly List	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
11/07	Frickley Club Friendly List	2-0	4-0	–	–	W
25/04	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-3	1-3	7	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC United of Manchester vs Gainsborough?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC United of Manchester win (43%). Probabilities: FC United of Manchester 43%, draw 27%, Gainsborough 29%.

How many goals are expected in FC United of Manchester vs Gainsborough?

The model expects 2.55 goals (FC United of Manchester 1.42 · Gainsborough 1.13), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC United of Manchester vs Gainsborough?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.