Football · England Northern Premier League · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Curzon Ashton vs Alfreton Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.84Total

Curzon Ashton1.71

Alfreton Town1.13

1X2

50% 26% 24%

Curzon Ashton Draw Alfreton Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Curzon Ashton 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLDLWLDDDL

Alfreton Town 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

DDWDLDLLLL

Head-to-head

Curzon Ashton 3–3–0 Alfreton Town (6 last)

Alfreton Town3-3Curzon Ashton
Curzon Ashton2-1Alfreton Town
Curzon Ashton0-0Alfreton Town
Alfreton Town0-1Curzon Ashton
Alfreton Town0-0Curzon Ashton
Curzon Ashton2-1Alfreton Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Curzon Ashton 1466 · Alfreton Town 1420

	Curzon Ashton	Draw	Alfreton Town
Our model	50%	26%	24%
Market	50%	26%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.84 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Curzon Ashton (rating 1466 vs 1420).
H2H favours Curzon Ashton: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Curzon Ashton	Alfreton Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	1 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.8	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/10/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.9 / 5	1.4 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	2.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.50

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
20:01 +3’	1.80	3.50	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Curzon Ashton 3–3–0 Alfreton Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/04/26 England National League North	Alfreton Town	3-3 HT 2-0	Curzon Ashton
06/12/25 England National League North	Curzon Ashton	2-1 HT 1-0	Alfreton Town
18/04/25 England National League North	Curzon Ashton	0-0 HT 0-0	Alfreton Town
01/01/25 England National League North	Alfreton Town	0-1 HT 0-1	Curzon Ashton
06/04/24 England National League North	Alfreton Town	0-0 HT 0-0	Curzon Ashton
06/02/24 England National League North	Curzon Ashton	2-1 HT 2-1	Alfreton Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Emley AFC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alfreton Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ashton Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Avro FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bamber Bridge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bury	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cleethorpes Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Curzon Ashton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC United of Manchester	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gainsborough	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guiseley	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hyde Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ilkeston	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lancaster City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leek Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Quorn	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Redcar Athletic	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stockton Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Warrington Rylands	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Warrington Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Whitby	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Workington	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Curzon Ashton

DLDLWLDDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Halifax UK Friendlies	0-0	0-1	0	0	L
28/07	Irlam Club Friendly List	2-1	2-2	–	–	D
25/07	Clitheroe UK Friendlies	1-0	1-1	9	0	D
25/04	Alfreton Town England National League North	0-2	3-3	3	7	D
18/04	Buxton England National League North	0-2	0-4	6	1	L
11/04	Chorley England National League North	1-0	1-0	4	8	W
06/04	Southport England National League North	0-1	1-3	3	6	L
03/04	Radcliffe FC England National League North	0-1	3-3	7	3	D
28/03	Chester England National League North	0-1	0-1	6	1	L
21/03	Kings Lynn Town England National League North	0-0	0-0	7	3	D

Alfreton Town

DDWDLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Mansfield UK Friendlies	0-2	0-4	6	0	L
21/07	Rotherham UK Friendlies	0-1	0-1	1	0	L
17/07	Derby UK Friendlies	0-2	0-2	3	0	L
14/07	Boston Utd UK Friendlies	1-0	1-2	6	0	L
11/07	Burton Albion UK Friendlies	0-0	0-0	2	1	D
04/07	Notts County UK Friendlies	0-2	0-5	5	0	L
25/04	Curzon Ashton England National League North	2-0	3-3	3	7	D
18/04	Marine England National League North	0-1	3-2	2	3	W
14/04	Buxton England National League North	2-1	2-2	3	6	D
11/04	Oxford City England National League North	0-1	1-1	2	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Curzon Ashton vs Alfreton Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Curzon Ashton win (50%). Probabilities: Curzon Ashton 50%, draw 26%, Alfreton Town 24%.

How many goals are expected in Curzon Ashton vs Alfreton Town?

The model expects 2.84 goals (Curzon Ashton 1.71 · Alfreton Town 1.13), with a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Curzon Ashton vs Alfreton Town?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.