Football · England Northern Premier League · 08/08, 16:00
Prediction: Leek Town vs Whitby
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.64Total
Leek Town1.51
Whitby1.14
1X2
Leek Town
Draw
Whitby
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 53%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Leek Town
5-5-0 (W-D-L)
Whitby
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Leek Town
2–1–1
Whitby
(4 last)
- Leek Town3-2Whitby
- Whitby0-3Leek Town
- Leek Town1-2Whitby
- Whitby0-0Leek Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leek Town 1577 · Whitby 1448
| Leek Town | Draw | Whitby | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 28% | 27% |
| Market | 46% | 25% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leek Town (rating 1577 vs 1448).
- H2H favours Leek Town: 2-1-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Leek Town | Whitby | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 0.7 | 1.2 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.4 | 0.5 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 25/75/0% | 33/33/33% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.6 / 4.4 | 1 / 3.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 0.8 / 0 | 3 / 0.5 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Leek Town 2–1–1 Whitby
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 England Northern Premier League | Leek Town | 3-2 | Whitby |
| 22/11/25 England Northern Premier League | Whitby | 0-3 | Leek Town |
| 15/02/25 England Northern Premier League | Leek Town | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Whitby |
| 19/10/24 England Northern Premier League | Whitby | 0-0 | Leek Town |
Standings · England Northern Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emley AFC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Alfreton Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ashton Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Avro FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bamber Bridge | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Bury | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Curzon Ashton | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | FC United of Manchester | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Gainsborough | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Guiseley | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Hyde Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Ilkeston | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Lancaster City | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Leek Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Quorn | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Redcar Athletic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Stockton Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Warrington Rylands | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Warrington Town | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Whitby | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 1 | Workington | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leek Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07 | Runcorn Linnets UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 0 | D |
| 25/07 | Stalybridge UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 1 | D |
| 21/07 | Kidsgrove Ath UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 1 | W |
| 18/07 | Stafford Rangers Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 14/07 | Macclesfield UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-1 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 09/07 | Abbey Hulton United Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 04/07 | Winsford United Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 25/04 | Workington England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/04 | Whitby England Northern Premier League |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 11/04 | Prescot Cables England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
Whitby
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08 | Guisborough Town Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 21/07 | Northallerton Town Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | West Auckland Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 10/07 | Bridlington Town UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 04/07 | Marske United Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 5-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Leek Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/04 | Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 06/04 | Morpeth Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/04 | FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-3 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leek Town vs Whitby?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Leek Town win (45%). Probabilities: Leek Town 45%, draw 26%, Whitby 28%.
How many goals are expected in Leek Town vs Whitby?
The model expects 2.64 goals (Leek Town 1.51 · Whitby 1.14), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Leek Town vs Whitby?
The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.