Football · England Northern Premier League · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Redcar Athletic vs Bury

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Redcar Athletic1.28

Bury1.52

1X2

32% 26% 42%

Redcar Athletic Draw Bury

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Redcar Athletic 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

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Bury 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Redcar Athletic 1522 · Bury 1529

	Redcar Athletic	Draw	Bury
Our model	31%	27%	42%
Market	32%	25%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 50%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 12 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Redcar Athletic	Bury
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.4	1.9 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.1 / 6.1	3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0	2.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.60

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
20:01 +3’	2.80	3.60	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Emley AFC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alfreton Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ashton Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Avro FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bamber Bridge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bury	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cleethorpes Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Curzon Ashton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC United of Manchester	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gainsborough	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guiseley	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hyde Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ilkeston	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lancaster City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leek Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Quorn	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Redcar Athletic	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stockton Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Warrington Rylands	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Warrington Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Whitby	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Workington	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Redcar Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Morpeth Town Club Friendly List	2-0	3-0	–	–	W
14/07	Hartlepool UK Friendlies	1-2	2-4	6	2	L
11/07	Darlington 1883 UK Friendlies	0-1	0-4	6	0	L
08/07	Middlesbrough U23 Club Friendly List	0-0	0-2	–	–	L
25/03	Matlock Town England Northern League Division One	0-0	4-2	3	1	W
14/03	Ossett United England Northern League Division One	1-0	3-2	6	3	W
11/03	Blyth Spartans England Northern League Division One	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
25/02	Grimsby Borough England Northern League Division One	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
20/01	Silsden England Northern League Division One	1-0	1-0	10	0	W
14/01	Blyth Town England Northern League Division One	1-0	1-0	7	3	W

Bury

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Radcliffe FC UK Friendlies	1-1	3-1	4	0	W
28/07	Accrington Stanley UK Friendlies	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
25/07	Morecambe Club Friendly List	0-2	0-2	–	–	L
13/07	Elton Vale FC Club Friendly List	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
11/07	Chorley Club Friendly List	0-1	2-1	–	–	W
11/07	Clitheroe Club Friendly List	1-0	2-2	–	–	D
18/04	Witton Albion England Northern League Division One	2-1	4-1	10	4	W
03/04	Congleton Town England Northern League Division One	0-1	4-1	9	2	W
21/03	Bootle England Northern League Division One	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
07/03	Vauxhall Motors England Northern League Division One	0-1	0-2	3	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Redcar Athletic vs Bury?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bury win (42%). Probabilities: Redcar Athletic 32%, draw 26%, Bury 42%.

How many goals are expected in Redcar Athletic vs Bury?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Redcar Athletic 1.28 · Bury 1.52), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Redcar Athletic vs Bury?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.