Football · England Northern Premier League · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Ashton Utd vs Lancaster City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.28Total

Ashton Utd1.82

Lancaster City1.46

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Ashton Utd Draw Lancaster City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ashton Utd 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWDDLWWL

Lancaster City 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

LWDWDWWLDW

Head-to-head

Ashton Utd 2–1–3 Lancaster City (6 last)

Lancaster City3-2Ashton Utd
Ashton Utd1-3Lancaster City
Ashton Utd2-1Lancaster City
Lancaster City2-2Ashton Utd
Ashton Utd5-0Lancaster City
Lancaster City2-1Ashton Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ashton Utd 1491 · Lancaster City 1567

	Ashton Utd	Draw	Lancaster City
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.28 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lancaster City (rating 1491 vs 1567).
H2H favours Lancaster City: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ashton Utd	Lancaster City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.4	2.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/63/38%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.5	2 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0	1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 3 moves · last 21:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.45▲	Bet365 2.45
X	3.60 → 3.50▼	Bet365 3.50
2	2.88 → 2.40▼	Pinn 2.65 ★

See the full journey (3)

Bet365 margin 11.1% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:01 +3’	2.00	3.60	2.88
17:02 +3’	2.00	3.50▼	3.00▲
21:14 +2’	2.45▲	3.50	2.40▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:05	2.41	3.20	2.65

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ashton Utd 2–1–3 Lancaster City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	3-2 HT 2-2	Ashton Utd
20/09/25 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	1-3 HT 0-2	Lancaster City
15/02/25 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	2-1 HT 2-0	Lancaster City
19/10/24 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	2-2 HT 0-2	Ashton Utd
05/03/24 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	5-0 HT 1-0	Lancaster City
14/11/23 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	2-1 HT 1-0	Ashton Utd

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Emley AFC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alfreton Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ashton Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Avro FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bamber Bridge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bury	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cleethorpes Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Curzon Ashton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC United of Manchester	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gainsborough	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guiseley	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hyde Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ilkeston	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lancaster City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leek Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Quorn	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Redcar Athletic	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stockton Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Warrington Rylands	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Warrington Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Whitby	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Workington	0	0	0	0	0	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ashton Utd

LWLWDDLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	Stalybridge UK Friendlies	0-1	1-2	4	0	L
25/07	Runcorn Linnets Club Friendly List	2-2	4-2	–	–	W
18/07	Euxton Villa Club Friendly List	0-0	2-0	–	–	W
10/07	Buxton UK Friendlies	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
25/04	Hednesford England Northern Premier League	–	3-3	–	–	D
18/04	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
11/04	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
06/04	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
03/04	Rushall Olympic England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	11	2	W
28/03	Stocksbridge PS England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L

Lancaster City

LWDWDWWLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Fulwood Amateurs FC Club Friendly List	2-1	7-2	–	–	W
21/07	Preston U21 UK Friendlies	1-0	2-2	5	0	D
18/07	Charnock Richard Club Friendly List	1-2	2-4	–	–	L
14/07	Garstang FC Club Friendly List	1-0	4-1	–	–	W
25/04	Stocksbridge PS England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
18/04	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/04	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
06/04	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-1	5	2	D
03/04	Morpeth Town England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
28/03	Hebburn Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ashton Utd vs Lancaster City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ashton Utd win (45%). Probabilities: Ashton Utd 45%, draw 25%, Lancaster City 30%.

How many goals are expected in Ashton Utd vs Lancaster City?

The model expects 3.28 goals (Ashton Utd 1.82 · Lancaster City 1.46), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ashton Utd vs Lancaster City?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.