Football · England Northern Premier League · 08/08, 16:00

Prediction: Ilkeston vs Stockton Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.64Total

Ilkeston1.36

Stockton Town1.28

1X2

38% 28% 34%

Ilkeston Draw Stockton Town

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ilkeston 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLWDDWWLLW

Stockton Town 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDDWLWLLL

Head-to-head

Ilkeston 1–3 Stockton Town (4 last)

Ilkeston0-1Stockton Town
Stockton Town0-4Ilkeston
Stockton Town1-0Ilkeston
Ilkeston1-2Stockton Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ilkeston 1514 · Stockton Town 1444

	Ilkeston	Draw	Stockton Town
Our model	38%	29%	34%
Market	38%	27%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 2.64 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ilkeston (rating 1514 vs 1444).
H2H favours Stockton Town: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ilkeston	Stockton Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.4	1 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/38/38%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.4	2 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.8	1.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.30

22.60

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.52.00

Under 2.51.80

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 20:03

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.30 → 3.30	Pinn 3.34
2	2.60 → 2.60	Pinn 2.67 ★

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3% Pinnacle margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
20:01 +3’	2.35	3.30	2.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
17:05	2.32	3.34	2.67

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ilkeston 1–0–3 Stockton Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	0-1	Stockton Town
01/11/25 England Northern Premier League	Stockton Town	0-4 HT 0-2	Ilkeston
22/03/25 England Northern Premier League	Stockton Town	1-0	Ilkeston
18/02/25 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	1-2 HT 0-2	Stockton Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Emley AFC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Alfreton Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ashton Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Avro FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bamber Bridge	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Bury	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Cleethorpes Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Curzon Ashton	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	FC United of Manchester	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Gainsborough	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Guiseley	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Hyde Utd	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Ilkeston	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Lancaster City	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Leek Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Quorn	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Redcar Athletic	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Stockton Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Warrington Rylands	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Warrington Town	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Whitby	0	0	0	0	0	0
1	Workington	0	0	0	0	0	0

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ilkeston	Stockton Town
FC United of Manchester	3-2 W	1-1 D
Rushall Olympic	0-2 L	2-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ilkeston (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Ilkeston

DLWDDWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
28/07	Basford Utd UK Friendlies	2-1	4-1	3	2	W
18/07	Barwell Club Friendly List	0-0	0-1	–	–	L
11/07	Worksop Club Friendly List	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
03/07	Belper United FC Club Friendly List	3-1	4-2	–	–	W
25/04	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W
21/04	Glossop North End England County Cup	0-1	2-2	7	5	D
18/04	Stocksbridge PS England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
11/04	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
06/04	Rushall Olympic England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
04/04	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	3	D

Stockton Town

LLDDWLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/07	Blyth Spartans Club Friendly List	0-1	0-3	–	–	L
14/07	Darlington 1883 UK Friendlies	1-1	1-3	1	2	L
11/07	Dunston UTS Club Friendly List	0-2	1-3	–	–	L
04/07	Guisborough Town Club Friendly List	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
28/04	Hednesford England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
25/04	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
21/04	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
18/04	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/04	Rushall Olympic England Northern Premier League	–	2-4	–	–	L
06/04	Hebburn Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ilkeston vs Stockton Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ilkeston win (38%). Probabilities: Ilkeston 38%, draw 28%, Stockton Town 34%.

How many goals are expected in Ilkeston vs Stockton Town?

The model expects 2.64 goals (Ilkeston 1.36 · Stockton Town 1.28), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ilkeston vs Stockton Town?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.