Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Leighton Town vs Hitchin

Team pages: Leighton Town · Hitchin

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.98Total

Leighton Town1.53

Hitchin1.45

1X2

39% 26% 35%

Leighton Town Draw Hitchin

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Leighton Town 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

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Hitchin 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Leighton Town 0–1 Hitchin (1 last)

Hitchin1-0Leighton Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leighton Town 1374 · Hitchin 1446

	Leighton Town	Draw	Hitchin
Our model	39%	27%	35%
Market	40%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 2.98 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 53%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hitchin (rating 1374 vs 1446).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leighton Town	Hitchin
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.7	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.6	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/0/71%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5	2.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.3	0.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.2%

Time*	1	X	2
19:15 +25’	2.25	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leighton Town 0–0–1 Hitchin

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/09/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Hitchin	1-0 HT 1-0	Leighton Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	16	11	2	3	40	22	35
2	Bury Town	16	10	2	4	28	25	32
3	Bromsgrove	14	9	4	1	28	14	31
4	Kettering	15	8	4	3	29	17	28
5	Rushall Olympic	16	9	0	7	32	25	27
6	Alvechurch	14	7	5	2	27	13	26
7	Peterborough Sports	15	7	5	3	31	25	26
8	Needham Market	15	7	4	4	32	23	25
9	Anstey Nomads	14	6	5	3	27	21	23
10	Halesowen	13	7	2	4	20	18	23
11	Stourbridge	14	6	4	4	19	17	22
12	Racing Club Warwick	15	5	5	5	22	19	20
13	Redditch	13	4	6	3	22	20	18
14	Stratford Town	15	3	7	5	21	27	16
15	Leiston	13	4	3	6	23	26	15
16	Banbury	15	3	5	7	18	28	14
17	Worcester City	13	3	4	6	15	17	13
18	Hitchin	15	3	4	8	17	23	13
19	Bishop's Stortford	15	4	1	10	18	28	13
20	Leamington	15	2	4	9	21	30	10
21	Leighton Town	14	1	3	10	15	32	6
22	Stamford	15	1	1	13	4	39	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leighton Town	Hitchin
Stourbridge	1-2 L	1-1 D
Peterborough Sports	2-4 L	0-1 L
Halesowen	2-4 L	1-2 L
Bury Town	2-3 L	5-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Hitchin (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leighton Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-5	–	–	L
27/10	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
20/10	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
17/10	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	0-3	4	3	L
10/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	2-4	4	4	L
29/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	9	0	L
12/09	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-4	–	–	L
31/08	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	2-3	4	5	L
29/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	2-3	8	2	L

Hitchin

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L
24/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	5-1	–	–	W
20/10	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
17/10	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-2	5	1	L
10/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
03/10	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-4	6	0	L
29/09	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-0	7	0	W
22/09	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	4	2	D
31/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leighton Town vs Hitchin?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leighton Town win (39%). Probabilities: Leighton Town 39%, draw 26%, Hitchin 35%.

How many goals are expected in Leighton Town vs Hitchin?

The model expects 2.98 goals (Leighton Town 1.53 · Hitchin 1.45), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Leighton Town vs Hitchin?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.