Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Bromsgrove vs Leiston

Team pages: Bromsgrove · Leiston

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Bromsgrove2.09

Leiston1.05

1X2

60% 22% 18%

Bromsgrove Draw Leiston

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Bromsgrove 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

WWWWDDWDDW

Leiston 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWLWLLDLWL

Head-to-head

Bromsgrove 2–3–1 Leiston (6 last)

Leiston1-1Bromsgrove
Bromsgrove2-1Leiston
Bromsgrove0-1Leiston
Leiston0-0Bromsgrove
Bromsgrove0-0Leiston
Leiston2-3Bromsgrove

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bromsgrove 1595 · Leiston 1478

	Bromsgrove	Draw	Leiston
Our model	60%	22%	17%
Market	61%	21%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bromsgrove (rating 1595 vs 1478).
H2H favours Bromsgrove: 2-3-1.
High corners: 12.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bromsgrove	Leiston
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	1.8 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/71/14%	14/43/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 5.7	3 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.3	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.48

X4.20

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:40

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.48 → 1.48	Bet365 1.48
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
19:34 +6’	1.48	4.20	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bromsgrove 2–3–1 Leiston

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	1-1	Bromsgrove
01/11/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Bromsgrove	2-1 HT 1-0	Leiston
18/01/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Bromsgrove	0-1	Leiston
09/11/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	0-0	Bromsgrove
16/12/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Bromsgrove	0-0 HT 0-0	Leiston
19/08/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	2-3 HT 1-1	Bromsgrove

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	16	11	2	3	40	22	35
2	Bury Town	16	10	2	4	28	25	32
3	Bromsgrove	14	9	4	1	28	14	31
4	Kettering	15	8	4	3	29	17	28
5	Rushall Olympic	16	9	0	7	32	25	27
6	Alvechurch	14	7	5	2	27	13	26
7	Peterborough Sports	15	7	5	3	31	25	26
8	Needham Market	15	7	4	4	32	23	25
9	Anstey Nomads	14	6	5	3	27	21	23
10	Halesowen	13	7	2	4	20	18	23
11	Stourbridge	14	6	4	4	19	17	22
12	Racing Club Warwick	15	5	5	5	22	19	20
13	Redditch	13	4	6	3	22	20	18
14	Stratford Town	15	3	7	5	21	27	16
15	Leiston	13	4	3	6	23	26	15
16	Banbury	15	3	5	7	18	28	14
17	Worcester City	13	3	4	6	15	17	13
18	Hitchin	15	3	4	8	17	23	13
19	Bishop's Stortford	15	4	1	10	18	28	13
20	Leamington	15	2	4	9	21	30	10
21	Leighton Town	14	1	3	10	15	32	6
22	Stamford	15	1	1	13	4	39	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bromsgrove	Leiston
Banbury	1-1 D	2-1 W
Kettering	2-1 W	0-4 L
Real Bedford	1-1 D	2-3 L
Bury Town	1-0 W	3-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Bromsgrove (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bromsgrove

WWWWDDWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	5-1	–	–	W
27/10	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
17/10	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
13/10	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	2-1	11	4	W
10/10	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
29/09	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-1	5	3	D
22/09	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	3-2	3	3	W
12/09	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
31/08	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-0	5	4	W
29/08	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	3-0	6	2	W

Leiston

DWLWLLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	1-3	7	3	L
27/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	–	5-2	–	–	W
20/10	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	0-4	7	2	L
10/10	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
29/09	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-3	5	5	L
22/09	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	10	0	L
12/09	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	7	4	W
31/08	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-4	–	–	L
29/08	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	3-1	5	8	W
22/08	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bromsgrove vs Leiston?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bromsgrove win (60%). Probabilities: Bromsgrove 60%, draw 22%, Leiston 18%.

How many goals are expected in Bromsgrove vs Leiston?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Bromsgrove 2.09 · Leiston 1.05), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Bromsgrove vs Leiston?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.