Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Needham Market vs Stourbridge

Team pages: Needham Market · Stourbridge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.93Total

Needham Market1.67

Stourbridge1.26

1X2

47% 25% 28%

Needham Market Draw Stourbridge

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Needham Market 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLDWWWDD

Stourbridge 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDLWWLWW

Head-to-head

Needham Market 3–2–1 Stourbridge (6 last)

Stourbridge0-1Needham Market
Needham Market3-0Stourbridge
Stourbridge1-1Needham Market
Needham Market1-0Stourbridge
Stourbridge0-0Needham Market
Needham Market0-1Stourbridge

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Needham Market 1542 · Stourbridge 1529

	Needham Market	Draw	Stourbridge
Our model	46%	26%	28%
Market	47%	24%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 2.93 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Needham Market: 3-2-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Needham Market	Stourbridge
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1.5	1.2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	56/11/33%	43/14/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	3.4 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.1 / 0.6	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.75

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:39

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
19:36 +3’	1.91	3.75	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Needham Market 3–2–1 Stourbridge

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/04/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Stourbridge	0-1 HT 0-1	Needham Market
18/10/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Needham Market	3-0 HT 3-0	Stourbridge
05/03/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Stourbridge	1-1 HT 1-1	Needham Market
09/09/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Needham Market	1-0 HT 0-0	Stourbridge
03/12/22 England Southern Premier League Central	Stourbridge	0-0 HT 0-0	Needham Market
08/10/22 England FA Trophy	Needham Market	0-1	Stourbridge

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	16	11	2	3	40	22	35
2	Bury Town	16	10	2	4	28	25	32
3	Bromsgrove	14	9	4	1	28	14	31
4	Kettering	15	8	4	3	29	17	28
5	Rushall Olympic	16	9	0	7	32	25	27
6	Alvechurch	14	7	5	2	27	13	26
7	Peterborough Sports	15	7	5	3	31	25	26
8	Needham Market	15	7	4	4	32	23	25
9	Anstey Nomads	14	6	5	3	27	21	23
10	Halesowen	13	7	2	4	20	18	23
11	Stourbridge	14	6	4	4	19	17	22
12	Racing Club Warwick	15	5	5	5	22	19	20
13	Redditch	13	4	6	3	22	20	18
14	Stratford Town	15	3	7	5	21	27	16
15	Leiston	13	4	3	6	23	26	15
16	Banbury	15	3	5	7	18	28	14
17	Worcester City	13	3	4	6	15	17	13
18	Hitchin	15	3	4	8	17	23	13
19	Bishop's Stortford	15	4	1	10	18	28	13
20	Leamington	15	2	4	9	21	30	10
21	Leighton Town	14	1	3	10	15	32	6
22	Stamford	15	1	1	13	4	39	4

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Needham Market	Stourbridge
Leighton Town	1-1 D	2-1 W
Leamington	2-1 W	0-2 L
Bury Town	5-0 W	0-2 L
Worcester City	2-0 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Needham Market (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Needham Market

DWWLDWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-3	–	–	D
27/10	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-1	9	2	D
20/10	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	2-1	5	0	W
17/10	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	2-1	2-1	1	6	W
13/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	3-0	5-0	10	2	W
10/10	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	1-1	2	2	D
03/10	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	1-3	3-5	0	5	L
29/09	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	4-0	4-0	5	2	W
12/09	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-0	3	3	W
31/08	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	3-3	4	2	D

Stourbridge

LDLDLWWLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	4-1	3	9	W
27/10	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-0	6	2	W
17/10	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-2	–	–	L
13/10	Worcester City England Southern Premier League Central	2-0	3-1	6	5	W
10/10	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
03/10	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	12	6	L
29/09	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/09	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	1-4	4	4	L
12/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	1-1	9	2	D
01/09	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	8	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Needham Market vs Stourbridge?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Needham Market win (47%). Probabilities: Needham Market 47%, draw 25%, Stourbridge 28%.

How many goals are expected in Needham Market vs Stourbridge?

The model expects 2.93 goals (Needham Market 1.67 · Stourbridge 1.26), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Needham Market vs Stourbridge?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.