Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 03/08, 01:15

Prediction: Estrella Roja vs Olancho FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.35Total

Estrella Roja0.96

Olancho FC1.39

1X2

26% 28% 46%

Estrella Roja Draw Olancho FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Estrella Roja 2-7-1 (W-D-L)

WDDDLWDDDD

Olancho FC 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWDLDLWLD

Head-to-head

Estrella Roja 0–1–4 Olancho FC (5 last)

Estrella Roja0-0Olancho FC
Olancho FC3-0Estrella Roja
Estrella Roja1-2Olancho FC
Olancho FC2-1Estrella Roja
Estrella Roja2-3Olancho FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Estrella Roja 1515 · Olancho FC 1512

	Estrella Roja	Draw	Olancho FC
Our model	25%	30%	45%
Market	26%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.35 goals · Bet365 line 2.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Olancho FC: 4-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Estrella Roja	Olancho FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 0.8	1.3 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/100/0%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5	2.1 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 1	3.1 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

13.40

X3.40

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.251.85

Under 2.251.95

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 18:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
18:06 +10’	3.40	3.40	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Estrella Roja 0–1–4 Olancho FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/04/22 Honduras Liga de Ascenso	Estrella Roja	0-0 HT 0-0	Olancho FC
04/03/22 Honduras Liga de Ascenso	Olancho FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Estrella Roja
02/10/21 Honduras Liga Nacional	Estrella Roja	1-2 HT 0-0	Olancho FC
04/09/21 Honduras Liga de Ascenso	Olancho FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Estrella Roja
19/03/21 Honduras Liga de Ascenso	Estrella Roja	2-3 HT 2-1	Olancho FC

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Espana	1	1	0	3	0	3
2	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Atletico Choloma	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Estrella Roja	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Genesis de Comayagua	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	CD Marathon	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	CD Olimpia	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Motagua	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Juticalpa	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Lobos UPNFM	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Olancho FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	CD Platense	1	0	1	0	3	0

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Estrella Roja

WDDDLWDDDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/05	FC Brasilia Rio Lindo Honduras Liga de Ascenso	–	2-2	–	–	D
02/05	FC Brasilia Rio Lindo Honduras Liga de Ascenso	–	1-1	–	–	D
26/04	Pumas FC Honduras Liga de Ascenso	–	0-0	–	–	D
20/04	Pumas FC Honduras Liga de Ascenso	1-1	1-1	5	6	D
12/04	Affi Academia Honduras Liga de Ascenso	–	4-0	–	–	W
05/04	Affi Academia Honduras Liga de Ascenso	–	0-1	–	–	L
28/03	CD San Rafael Honduras Liga de Ascenso	–	0-0	–	–	D
26/03	Gimnastico de Tegucigalpa Honduras Liga de Ascenso	–	1-1	–	–	D
21/03	Arsenal FC de Roatan Honduras Liga de Ascenso	–	2-2	–	–	D
14/03	Meluca FC Honduras Liga de Ascenso	–	3-0	–	–	W

Olancho FC

WWWDLDLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
15/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	7	4	D
13/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	0-2	0	4	L
10/05	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
07/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-3	7	4	L
01/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
26/04	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-1	4	4	L
24/04	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	8	3	D
20/04	CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
12/04	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	4	5	W
09/04	Juticalpa Honduras Liga Nacional	4-0	4-0	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Estrella Roja vs Olancho FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Olancho FC win (46%). Probabilities: Estrella Roja 26%, draw 28%, Olancho FC 46%.

How many goals are expected in Estrella Roja vs Olancho FC?

The model expects 2.35 goals (Estrella Roja 0.96 · Olancho FC 1.39), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Estrella Roja vs Olancho FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.