Football · Honduras Liga Nacional · 02/08, 23:00

Prediction: Juticalpa vs Motagua

Team pages: Motagua

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.16Total

Juticalpa1.02

Motagua2.14

1X2

16% 22% 62%

Juticalpa Draw Motagua

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Juticalpa 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

DLLWDLDLLW

Motagua 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WLDLWWDDLW

Head-to-head

Juticalpa 0–1–5 Motagua (6 last)

Motagua2-1Juticalpa
Juticalpa1-2Motagua
Juticalpa1-7Motagua
Motagua0-0Juticalpa
Motagua5-1Juticalpa
Juticalpa0-3Motagua

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Juticalpa 1430 · Motagua 1566

	Juticalpa	Draw	Motagua
Our model	16%	22%	62%
Market	16%	22%	62%

Estimated total (ours) 3.16 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Motagua (rating 1430 vs 1566).
H2H favours Motagua: 5-1-0.
High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Juticalpa	Motagua
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	1.8 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.8	0.9 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 3.8	3.4 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

15.50

X4.10

21.44

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)1.85

2 (-1.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.44 → 1.44	Bet365 1.44

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:17 +25’	5.50	4.10	1.44

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Juticalpa 0–1–5 Motagua

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	2-1 HT 0-0	Juticalpa
26/02/26 Honduras Liga Nacional	Juticalpa	1-2 HT 0-0	Motagua
07/12/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Juticalpa	1-7 HT 1-2	Motagua
21/09/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	0-0 HT 0-0	Juticalpa
14/04/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Motagua	5-1 HT 1-0	Juticalpa
12/02/25 Honduras Liga Nacional	Juticalpa	0-3 HT 0-1	Motagua

Standings · Honduras Liga Nacional

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#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Espana	1	1	0	3	0	3
2	CA Independiente Siguatepeque	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Atletico Choloma	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Estrella Roja	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Genesis de Comayagua	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	CD Marathon	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	CD Olimpia	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Motagua	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Juticalpa	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Lobos UPNFM	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Olancho FC	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	CD Platense	1	0	1	0	3	0

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Juticalpa	Motagua
Lobos UPNFM	1-0 W	1-2 L
Olancho FC	0-4 L	2-0 W
Genesis de Comayagua	1-0 W	2-1 W
CD Olimpia	1-6 L	0-1 L
CD Marathon	0-4 L	0-0 D
Atletico Choloma	1-1 D	5-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Motagua (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Juticalpa

DLLWDLDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/04	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-0	–	–	W
22/04	CD Victoria Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-2	–	–	L
20/04	Motagua Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
16/04	CD Platense Honduras Liga Nacional	0-1	1-1	7	6	D
09/04	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	0-4	0-4	2	1	L
07/04	Real Espana Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	0	5	D
02/04	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-0	3	3	W
23/03	CD Olimpia Honduras Liga Nacional	1-2	1-6	–	–	L
18/03	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-4	5	5	L
15/03	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	1-1	–	–	D

Motagua

WLDLWWDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/07	Verdes FC CONCACAF Central American Cup	1-0	5-0	10	2	W
24/07	CD Olimpia Honduras Super Cup	0-0	0-1	12	5	L
25/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	0-0	13	6	D
22/05	CD Marathon Honduras Liga Nacional	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
19/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-1	2-1	6	5	W
13/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	2-0	4	4	W
10/05	Olancho FC Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-2	6	4	L
04/05	Genesis de Comayagua Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-1	4	7	D
01/05	Lobos UPNFM Honduras Liga Nacional	1-0	1-2	–	–	L
27/04	Atletico Choloma Honduras Liga Nacional	3-1	5-1	5	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Juticalpa vs Motagua?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Motagua win (62%). Probabilities: Juticalpa 16%, draw 22%, Motagua 62%.

How many goals are expected in Juticalpa vs Motagua?

The model expects 3.16 goals (Juticalpa 1.02 · Motagua 2.14), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Juticalpa vs Motagua?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.