Football · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A · 24/07, 02:00
Prediction: Emelec vs Mushuc Runa
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.37Total
Emelec1.5
Mushuc Runa0.87
1X2
Emelec
Draw
Mushuc Runa
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 58%
Both teams to score 50%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Emelec
3-5-2 (W-D-L)
Mushuc Runa
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Emelec
2–2–2
Mushuc Runa
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Emelec 1518 · Mushuc Runa 1458
| Emelec | Draw | Mushuc Runa | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 51% | 29% | 21% |
| Market | 51% | 27% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.37 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Emelec (rating 1518 vs 1458).
- Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Emelec | Mushuc Runa | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.8 / 1 | 1.3 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.7 / 4.7 | 2.2 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.8 / 0.3 | 4.8 / 0.3 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Emelec 2–2–2 Mushuc Runa
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/03/26 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Emelec |
| 20/07/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Mushuc Runa |
| 30/03/25 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Emelec |
| 12/08/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Mushuc Runa | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Emelec |
| 09/03/24 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Mushuc Runa |
| 23/09/23 Ecuador LigaPro Serie A | Emelec | 3-1 HT 1-1 | Mushuc Runa |
Standings · Ecuador LigaPro Serie A
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Independiente del Valle | 20 | 16 | 1 | 3 | 49 | 20 | 49 |
| 2 | SD Aucas | 20 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 19 | 35 |
| 3 | Barcelona Guayaquil | 20 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 22 | 14 | 34 |
| 4 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 18 | 32 |
| 5 | Macara | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 21 | 21 | 29 |
| 6 | LDU Quito | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 16 | 28 |
| 7 | Deportivo Cuenca | 20 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 19 | 23 | 28 |
| 8 | Leones FC | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 21 | 20 | 27 |
| 9 | Emelec | 20 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 27 |
| 10 | Guayaquil City | 20 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 18 | 22 | 26 |
| 11 | Tecnico Universitario | 20 | 7 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 21 | 23 |
| 12 | Orense | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 26 | 23 |
| 13 | Delfin SC | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 13 | 19 | 23 |
| 14 | Mushuc Runa | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 24 | 29 | 21 |
| 15 | Club Atletico Libertad | 20 | 5 | 6 | 9 | 18 | 26 | 21 |
| 16 | Manta FC | 20 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 7 | 25 | 13 |
Common opponents 5 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Emelec | Mushuc Runa |
|---|---|---|
| Independiente del Valle | 1-6 L | 1-4 L |
| Delfin SC | 1-1 D | 0-1 L |
| Universidad Catolica del Ecuador | 1-0 W | 3-2 W |
| Macara | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Leones FC | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Record vs common | 2 W 1 D 2 L | 1 W 0 D 4 L |
Better against common opponents: Emelec (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Emelec
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-3 | 1-6 | 0 | 2 | L |
| 17/07 | Orense Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 8 | W |
| 13/07 | Barcelona Guayaquil Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 06/07 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 4 | D |
| 01/06 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 24/05 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 20/05 | Daquilema FC Ecuador Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 18/05 | Manta FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 10/05 | Club Atletico Libertad Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-1 | 11 | 4 | D |
| 04/05 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
Mushuc Runa
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/07 | Macara Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 11/07 | Independiente del Valle Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 06/07 | Universidad Catolica del Ecuador Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-0 | 3-2 | 1 | 2 | W |
| 03/06 | Gualaceo SC Ecuador Cup |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 31/05 | SD Aucas Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 9 | D |
| 23/05 | Guayaquil City Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 2-2 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 17/05 | Leones FC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 12/05 | LDU Quito Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 1-3 | 5 | 7 | L |
| 03/05 | Delfin SC Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 25/04 | Deportivo Cuenca Ecuador LigaPro Serie A |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Emelec vs Mushuc Runa?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Emelec win (51%). Probabilities: Emelec 51%, draw 28%, Mushuc Runa 21%.
How many goals are expected in Emelec vs Mushuc Runa?
The model expects 2.37 goals (Emelec 1.5 · Mushuc Runa 0.87), with a 52% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Emelec vs Mushuc Runa?
The model gives a 50% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.